Besides maybe the Super Bowl, no other sporting event galvanizes sports fans everywhere like the NCAA Tournament.
The reason? Gambling of course. Everyone, from rabid basketball fans to high school girls that don't know Duke is in North Carolina, fill out a bracket.
Consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimate March Madness will cost employers $3.8 billion in lost productivity as employees spend work time researching their brackets and then watch scores once the tournament starts.
Well, I am going to contribute to that lost productivity by giving you something else to read when you should be working — a guide on how to win your office pool.
Sure, a lot of the bracket can come down to luck (explaining why Suzie in accounting won because she picked the prettiest uniforms), but there are also ways to make sure you're in a position to win if the breaks go your way. Since the tournament didn't go to 65 teams until 1985, I will only be referring to stats from then on.
Lets start at the top.
No No. 16 seed has ever beaten a top seed, so you could automatically forward the four No.1 seeds through to the second round.
Will a monumental upset eventually happen? Maybe, but if it does most people will lose that game anyway, and if you had them going to the Final Four your finished!
After the first round how far do you take your No.1 seeds? Well, that largely depends on the team, but there is some history to consider.
Since 1985, the championship game has only matched two No. 1 seeds four times: 1993 North Carolina vs. Michigan, 1999 Duke vs. Connecticut, 2005 North Carolina vs. Illinois, and 2007 Florida vs. Ohio State. There has never been a year where all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. The closest was 1993, when three No. 1 seeds (Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina) and a No. 2 seed (Kansas) made it to the Final Four.
Summing up, if you have four top seeds in your Final Four, you're most likely going to be wrong somewhere. Keep in mind, at least one top seed has made the Final Four every year except 2006.
Picking the right upsets is key to winning any office pool, but just as important is deciding how far those Cinderella's will go.
For instance, only four No. 15 seeds have beaten a No. 2 seed in the tournament, but a No. 15 seed has never gotten further then the second round. So if you are going to take a risk in the first round on a long shot, you should probably stop there.
The most common upset pick is the 12-5, and for good reason because it happens fairly often. A No. 5 seed has lost 29 times to a No. 12 seed. Oddly enough, this is the same amount of times that a No. 11 seed has beaten a No. 6 seed. But of all those upsets only one No. 12 seed has made it to the Elite Eight (Missouri in 2002) and two No. 11 seeds have made it to the Final Four (LSU, 1986 and George Mason, 2006).
So if you are going to go for an upset in the early rounds, it's probably sensible not to ride said team past the Sweet Sixteen. The No. 12 and No. 11 seeds are usually mid-majors that are hot coming into the tournament, or have one great player, but they eventually run out of magic.
You also might want to look for some other historical markers when making your picks. For instance, no team with one loss has won the National Championship, which does not bode well for Memphis if they don't lose again this season. John Calipari was also the coach of one of those past teams (UMass in 1996) that lost in the title game.
One other thing to keep in mind about Memphis — they have the worst free throw percentage in Division I. That's the kind of thing that comes back to haunt you in close tournament games. Look at their loss to Tennessee during the season. They were just 8-of-17 from the line: Andre Allen missed a pair and Chris Douglas-Roberts missed a one-and-one in the final five minutes.
The reason some coaches make the big bucks is they are great when it comes to getting to the Final Four, which is the name of the game. No matter how sketchy their teams might look during the regular seasons, you have to just throw that out when it comes time to fill out your brackets.
The Bruins have won the most National Titles of any school and have one of the best teams in the country this year, so this isn't a crazy stretch. But Howland knows how to win tournament games. He has been to the Final Four each of the last two years, and he took Pittsburgh to the Sweet 16 twice.
Since taking over the program in 1995-96 Michigan State's Tom Izzo has been amazing in the Big Dance. He has been to four Final Fours (including a National Title in 1999-00) and one Elite Eight finish. Every player he recruited that played all four years played in at least one Final Four.
You also of course have to keep your eye on Mike Krzyzewski at Duke (10 Final Fours, three titles), Rick Pitino at Louisville (five Final Fours, one title), and Roy Williams at North Carolina (five Final Fours, one title). Williams has one of the most talented teams in the country this year, and he knows how to get the most out of it.
On the flip side you should watch out for a team like Kansas. In the four years that Bill Self has been their coach they have lost in the first round of the tournament twice, and sure he went to the Elite Eight the other two years, but every one of those seasons he had the talent to win it all like he has this year.
Memphis, who I mentioned earlier, is another team that has underachieved in the tournament with superior talent. John Calipari has only been to one Final Four in his 16 seasons, and that appearance has actually been erased from the history books due to violations. He has gotten to the Elite Eight each of the last two seasons with teams that were both 33-4, it seems that is about when the bad foul shooting and the to many three point shots catch up to them.
At the end of the day, after you take into account all the information and check out all the stats, go with your gut. How many times have you erased a team you had picked only to see them win? Your first thought is usually the best one. Of course, you could always go with the prettiest uniform theory!
The reason? Gambling of course. Everyone, from rabid basketball fans to high school girls that don't know Duke is in North Carolina, fill out a bracket.
Consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimate March Madness will cost employers $3.8 billion in lost productivity as employees spend work time researching their brackets and then watch scores once the tournament starts.
Well, I am going to contribute to that lost productivity by giving you something else to read when you should be working — a guide on how to win your office pool.
Sure, a lot of the bracket can come down to luck (explaining why Suzie in accounting won because she picked the prettiest uniforms), but there are also ways to make sure you're in a position to win if the breaks go your way. Since the tournament didn't go to 65 teams until 1985, I will only be referring to stats from then on.
Lets start at the top.
No No. 16 seed has ever beaten a top seed, so you could automatically forward the four No.1 seeds through to the second round.
Will a monumental upset eventually happen? Maybe, but if it does most people will lose that game anyway, and if you had them going to the Final Four your finished!
After the first round how far do you take your No.1 seeds? Well, that largely depends on the team, but there is some history to consider.
Since 1985, the championship game has only matched two No. 1 seeds four times: 1993 North Carolina vs. Michigan, 1999 Duke vs. Connecticut, 2005 North Carolina vs. Illinois, and 2007 Florida vs. Ohio State. There has never been a year where all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. The closest was 1993, when three No. 1 seeds (Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina) and a No. 2 seed (Kansas) made it to the Final Four.
Summing up, if you have four top seeds in your Final Four, you're most likely going to be wrong somewhere. Keep in mind, at least one top seed has made the Final Four every year except 2006.
Picking the right upsets is key to winning any office pool, but just as important is deciding how far those Cinderella's will go.
For instance, only four No. 15 seeds have beaten a No. 2 seed in the tournament, but a No. 15 seed has never gotten further then the second round. So if you are going to take a risk in the first round on a long shot, you should probably stop there.
The most common upset pick is the 12-5, and for good reason because it happens fairly often. A No. 5 seed has lost 29 times to a No. 12 seed. Oddly enough, this is the same amount of times that a No. 11 seed has beaten a No. 6 seed. But of all those upsets only one No. 12 seed has made it to the Elite Eight (Missouri in 2002) and two No. 11 seeds have made it to the Final Four (LSU, 1986 and George Mason, 2006).
So if you are going to go for an upset in the early rounds, it's probably sensible not to ride said team past the Sweet Sixteen. The No. 12 and No. 11 seeds are usually mid-majors that are hot coming into the tournament, or have one great player, but they eventually run out of magic.
You also might want to look for some other historical markers when making your picks. For instance, no team with one loss has won the National Championship, which does not bode well for Memphis if they don't lose again this season. John Calipari was also the coach of one of those past teams (UMass in 1996) that lost in the title game.
One other thing to keep in mind about Memphis — they have the worst free throw percentage in Division I. That's the kind of thing that comes back to haunt you in close tournament games. Look at their loss to Tennessee during the season. They were just 8-of-17 from the line: Andre Allen missed a pair and Chris Douglas-Roberts missed a one-and-one in the final five minutes.
The reason some coaches make the big bucks is they are great when it comes to getting to the Final Four, which is the name of the game. No matter how sketchy their teams might look during the regular seasons, you have to just throw that out when it comes time to fill out your brackets.
The Bruins have won the most National Titles of any school and have one of the best teams in the country this year, so this isn't a crazy stretch. But Howland knows how to win tournament games. He has been to the Final Four each of the last two years, and he took Pittsburgh to the Sweet 16 twice.
Since taking over the program in 1995-96 Michigan State's Tom Izzo has been amazing in the Big Dance. He has been to four Final Fours (including a National Title in 1999-00) and one Elite Eight finish. Every player he recruited that played all four years played in at least one Final Four.
You also of course have to keep your eye on Mike Krzyzewski at Duke (10 Final Fours, three titles), Rick Pitino at Louisville (five Final Fours, one title), and Roy Williams at North Carolina (five Final Fours, one title). Williams has one of the most talented teams in the country this year, and he knows how to get the most out of it.
On the flip side you should watch out for a team like Kansas. In the four years that Bill Self has been their coach they have lost in the first round of the tournament twice, and sure he went to the Elite Eight the other two years, but every one of those seasons he had the talent to win it all like he has this year.
Memphis, who I mentioned earlier, is another team that has underachieved in the tournament with superior talent. John Calipari has only been to one Final Four in his 16 seasons, and that appearance has actually been erased from the history books due to violations. He has gotten to the Elite Eight each of the last two seasons with teams that were both 33-4, it seems that is about when the bad foul shooting and the to many three point shots catch up to them.
At the end of the day, after you take into account all the information and check out all the stats, go with your gut. How many times have you erased a team you had picked only to see them win? Your first thought is usually the best one. Of course, you could always go with the prettiest uniform theory!
