POSTED 8-25-07

If the 2007 BCS Championship Game in the Arizona desert taught us anything, it's that one game can rewrite an entire season. The Florida Gators routed heavily-favored Ohio State, 41-14, to turn the college football world on its ear. And that type of outcome has happened more often than not in recent years, from Texas stunning USC to Ohio State stealing another crown away from Miami.

As we approach the start of another season, there are no shortage of championship candidates. But unlike years' past, there is no overwhelming favorite. Not that it matters in the end. UPDATE! breaks down its preseason Top 25. Use it as a guide on draft day and in pick 'em pools. But once the BCS kicks in, all bets are off.

1. USC
Comment: Southern California went 11-2 last season and defeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The return of quarterback John David Booty will bring stability to a team that last season lost Matt Lienart, Reggie Bush and Lendell White from their National Championship contending team from the previous season. The team played well enough to defeat Michigan last year in the Rose Bowl despite their significant talent loses. USC also had to compensate for the loss of offensive guru Norm Chow to the NFL. The Trojans will probably have the best secondary in the nation with safeties Taylor Mays, John Pinkard and Kevin Ellison covering the backfield. Despite losing Dwayne Jarret and Steve Smith, the Trojans will have a new, solid receiving core. Helping David Booty downfield will be receivers Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazleton. New running back Joe McKnight will help the Trojans immediately as well. Between the Trojans offensive power, shutdown secondary and coaching prowess of Pete Carrol, USC is my choice to win the national championship.

2. MICHIGAN
Comment: Despite having the same 11-2 record as USC last season, Michigan could not defeat USC in their second straight BCS defeat. USC's opponent from the Rose Bowl will be a force in the Big Ten and a top contender for the National Championship because of returning offensive stars and the added experience of returning upper classmen. After losing a close game to National Championship loser Ohio State, Michigan showed that they deserved to have a shot to play in the National Championship game. Offense will propel the Wolverines to the top of the Big Ten this season. Head Coach Lloyd Carr needs vindication after back to back BCS losses and a reputation for coming up short in big games. However, Quarterback Chad Henny, Tailback Mike Hart, and wide receiver Mario Manningham are all returning. Michigan is somewhat weak at linebacker because of the loss of All American David Harris. However, Michigan has three options to fill the void: John Thompson, Austin Panter and freshman Obinnah Eza. If Chad Henny improves in big games and Hart plays like he did last season, Michigan will win the Big Ten and be a leading contender at season's end to play for the National Championship.

3. W. VIRGINIA
Comment: Coach Rich Rodriguez has high hopes for his team this season. West Virginia had hopes of gaining a BCS bid last season with an 11-2 record, but playing in the mediocre Big East conference requires West Virginia to run the table, just like this year. The return of Steve Slayton will solidify the Mountaineers' offense. Slayton should also lead the Big East in rushing and compete for the Heismann Trophy. Quarterback Patrick White will also compete for the coveted award, but the Mountaineers defense will determine whether they compete for the National Championship game and not just to the top of the Big East.

4. LSU
Comment: Louisiana State went 11-2 last season under Jamarcus Russell. Despite the loss of Russell, the Tigers will have a talented quarterback in Ryan Perrilloux, but his lack of experience will probably make senior Matt Flynn the starter at the start of the season. The instability at quarterback will prevent the Tigers from winning the SEC. A big loss for LSU was Justin Vincent, who rushed for 210 yards last season. Their lack of a big play receiver will hold them back as well. However, their defense is strong.

5. WISCONSIN
Comment: New coach Bret Bielema will lead the next best team in the Big Ten behind Michigan. Replacing quarterback John Stocco, who led the Badger to a 12-1 record, will be a challenge, but besides that the Badgers are a talented team. P.J. Hill will lead the Badgers aggressive run defense. Losing Offensive Lineman Joe Thomas will hurt their front line, but their solid offense and tough defense will help Wisconsin challenge Michigan for the top spot in the Big Ten.

6. TEXAS
Comment: Quarterback Colt Mcoy led Texas to a 10-3 record last season. Besides some growing pains in big games and a late season injury, Mcoy impressed Head Coach Mack Brown. He will attempt to lead the Longhorns to a shot at the big twelve title over Oklahoma, still recovering from the Rhett Bomar scandal of last year and a crushing Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State. Receivers Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman will help Mcoy lead the big Twelve in passing.

7. VA. TECH
Comment: The nation's best defense last year helped the Hokies to a 10-3 record last season, and that same defense will help Vtech return as a contender to win the ACC. Tailback Brandon Ore and quarterback Sean Glennon will lead a talented offense this season, which will compliment their loaded defense.

8. LOUISVILLE
Comment: Louisville will try and improve upon their 12-1 record from last season, because they must run the table in order to achieve a BCS bid. As always, Louisville will score points. Brian Bromm will lead the Cardinals who, after losing head coach Bobby Potrino to the Atlanta Falcons, will have to rally around new coach Steve Kragthorpe. Despite losing Amobi Okoye and Nate Harris, their defense will survive and might surprise some Big East offenses, but don't expect Louisville to contend for a BCS spot because of coaching losses and big defense losses to the NFL Draft.

9. ARKANSAS
Comment: Last year Arkansas surprised the SEC with a 10-4 record, in part because of Quarterback Mitch Mustain, who will lead the Razorbacks' strong passing game. Arkansas may compete with LSU for the top spot in the SEC because of their potent offense. Running back Darren McFadden will be in the running for the Heisman Trophy and may lead the SEC in rushing for the second straight year.

10. FLORIDA
Comment: Fresh off their National Championship win, the Gators, who almost went undefeated last season with a 12-1 record in the tough SEC, will be a strong offensive team led by Tim Tebo, who helped them win the National Championship last year behind Chris Leek. The Gators lost a significant amount of talent on defense, and they might finish in the back of the pack in an always competitive SEC behind LSU and possibly Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas. The gators may finish in the middle of the pack.

11. TEXAS A&M
Comment: Coach Dennis Francioni leads a team that went 9-4 last season, which saved his job. Coach Francioni will lead a dynamic offense. Stephan McGee, Mike Goodson and Jovorskie Lance will play key roles in the Aggie offense. The Aggie run game will be strong, but passing will be a challenge with a lack of big game receivers. They will probably fall behind Texas in the Big Twelve, but they may finish ahead of Oklahoma because of their offensive talent.

12. OKLAHOMA
Comment: Oklahoma went 11-3 last season. The loss of Adrian Peterson will hurt the Sooners, but Allen Patrick and Demarco Murray impressed Stoops in the spring game and will shoulder the load on offense. Instability in the quarterback position will hinder the Sooners' chances to win the Big Twelve over Texas, who has a stable starter at the quarterback position to start the season.

13. B.C.
Comment: Boston College finished 10-3 last season because of a solid quarterback performance by Matt Ryan. Ryan will return and lead the speedy Eagles in the ACC this season. Ryan was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the ACC last season, and under new coach Jeff Jagodzinski, Ryan will be allowed to run the offense his way. He has full control this season, so look for the Eagles to compete with Virginia Tech for the top spot in the ACC.

14. GEORGIA
Comment: Master recruiter Mark Recht will lead a more stable Bulldog offense this season with quarterback Matt Stafford at the helm. The Bulldogs faltered last season, finishing 9-4, because of a tough SEC and an unstable quarterback situation. The competition in the SEC has not changed, but, as Adam Caparell states on CBS SportsLine.com, "with Matthew Stafford firmly entrenched" as quarterback at the start of the season, the team's stability will help them compete at a higher level.

15. AUBURN
Comment: Auburn had a breakout season last year, finishing 11-2. Quarterback Brandon Cox will lead a talented Auburn offense, but they will probably finish in the middle of the SEC pack because of their strength of schedule and a mediocre defense.

16. RUTGERS
Comment: Rutgers nearly ran the table last year, ending the season with an 11-2 record. With Greg Schiano resigning in the off season, making the team clear of his intention to be at Rutgers for a long time, the team's stability will help them compete to win the Big East. Running back Ray Rice will once again be in the running for the Hesiman Trophy, and quarterback Mike Teel is solid and makes few mistakes.

17. S. MISS.
Comment: Despite finishing only 9-5 last season, the Golden Eagles have a manageable schedule next season, playing Tennessee Martin, Tulsa, and a weak Conference USA Schedule. Look for Southern Mississippi to be a sleeper this season.

18. NEBRASKA
Comment: Coach Bill Callahan may complete his rebuilding program this year, because Nebraska may finally compete to win the Big Twelve for the first time in a long time (Nebraska time). Last season Nebraska went 9-5, to the chagrin of fanatical Cornhusker fans. However, with a new defense and quarterback Sam Keller leading the offense, Nebraska should play a little more consistent this season.

19. PENN ST.
Comment: Penn State went 9-4 last year, which was respectable because fans did not expect much from a team with a young, inexperienced quarterback. Joe Paterno, fresh from celebrating his 80th birthday, will lead a much-improved Nittany Lion team. Quarterback Adam Morelli will be playing behind a young and inexperienced offensive line. But Morelli's play should improve after gaining a more thorough knowledge of Joe's offensive program.

20. OHIO STATE
Comment: Ohio State had a great season last year, finishing 12-1 and going to the National Championship game. However, after losing the national championship to Florida, as well as losing Ted Ginn and Troy Smith to the NFL, the Buckeyes will take a big step back and finish in the middle of the Big Ten this season. They have an unstable quarterback situation and a young defense.

21. HAWAII
Comment: Hawaii went 11-3 last season and dominated the WAC along with Boise State. The Rainbow Warriors will score the most points in the nation behind returning quarterback Colt Brennen. Brennen will compete for the Heisman Trophy once again, and Hawaii will win games.

22. S.CAROLINA
Comment: South Carolina went 8-5 last year in Steve Spurrier's second season, which was about where most people expected them to finish. Steve Spurrier will have an improved offense this season. Blake Mitchell will run the team, and even though they are more stable, they will probably not be able to keep up with the more talented SEC teams.

23. UCLA
Comment: In coach Karl Dorrell's 5th season at UCLA, the Bruins should make some improvements, which may mean BCS bid to some fans. However, that is unlikely. Beating USC last year was a start, but finishing 7-6 was a set-back. Also, Ben Olson's abilities as quarterback are still up in the air. USC will still be the team to beat in the PAC-10.

24. BOISE ST.
Comment: Boise State finished their great undefeated 13-0 season with a Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. After their miraculous victory, Boise State will be under more scrutiny to make the BCS again. However, last year was last year and the Broncos will be a power in the WAC, but not in the nation. Quarterback Jared Zabransky will again be the starter.

25. FSU
Comment: Florida State finished a mediocre season with a 7-6 record, which prompted Bobby Bowden to make some drastic changes to his coaching staff. Following the staff changes, the Seminoles and their fans are looking for more stability. Drew Weathorford is the starter, but Jimbo Fisher is right on his heels for the starting spot.


UPDATE! writer Justin Winter believes LSU can be this season's version of the Florida Gators and win the whole thing. We'll see.

PHOTO BY BRIAN RAY / ICON SMI
Can Texas quarterback Colt McCoy lead the Longhorns on a championship drive?



1. WASHINGTON
Comment: To start the season, the Huskies play at Syracuse, at home against Ohio State, Boise State, on the road against UCLA and at home against USC. Their PAC-10 conference includes games against Cal, and Arizona State and Oregon State on the road. To finish the season the Huskies have to travel to Hawaii to play the Rainbow Warriors. There is no break in the Huskies' schedule to get well. They will be tested from start to finish and their record at the end of the season should reflect that fact.

2. SOUTH CAROLINA
Comment: The Gamecocks play four of the toughest SEC teams on the road: LSU, Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas. South Carolina plays defending National Champion Florida at home, and the Gamecocks play rival Clemson to end the season.

3. USC
Comment: The Trojans play tough PAC-10 games on the road this season. They play at Oregon, Cal and Arizona State. All three teams will be better than last season. Southern Cal also plays tough non-conference games against Notre Dame and Nebraska, both on the road. USC's game against Stanford should be a rout that they will need in the middle of their brutal schedule.

4. FLORIDA STATE
Comment: The Seminoles' first game will be against Clemson on National T.V. FSU plays road games against Wake Forest, Boston College and Virginia Tech, and they plays only 5 home games this season. A rivalry game against Miami at home should be a win. But to end the season the Seminoles play Florida at home and against Maryland.

5. AUBURN
Comment: The Tigers do not play one tough non-conference opponent. Games against South Florida and Kansas State may be tough, but their SEC schedule could bury them. They play LSU, Florida, Arkansas and Georgia, all on the road, and they end the season against Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

6. MICHIGAN STATE
Comment: The Spartans play tough Big Ten games on the road, including a game at Notre Dame. State plays at Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue and Iowa. The Spartans also play Michigan and Penn State at home. First year Head Coach Mark Dantonio will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself with this schedule.

7. STANFORD
Comment: Stanford plays a tough non-conference schedule to compliment their rigorous PAC-10 competition this season. The Cardinal play tough road games against USC, Arizona, Oregon State and Washington State.

8. UCLA
Comment: The Bruins do play four PAC-10 road games, but only one set of back-to-back road games this season, so they cannot complain too much. However, they do play tough non-conference games, including BYU, Utah and Notre Dame. UCLA plays Cal, Arizona State and Oregon at home, but they play rival USC on the road.

9. NOTRE DAME
Comment: Even though the Fighting Irish play Navy and Air Force and a Duke team that finished winless last season, their schedule remains tough. They play Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, UCLA, Boston College and USC. The Irish play Penn State and Michigan back to back on the road, and their home games against BC and USC will determine their success this season.

10. DUKE
Comment: Duke plays tough road games throughout the season. Duke plays road games against Virginia, Northwestern, Miami, Florida State Notre Dame and UNC. Home games against Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Wake Forest will offer the Blue Devils no respite from their tough schedule. Look for Duke to finish winless for the second straight year.


1. KANSAS
Comment: The Jayhawks will benefit from an easy non-conference schedule. The competition in the Big Twelve will be manageable besides the powerhouse of Nebraska, because Kansas does not play Texas or Oklahoma this season. They will however play Missouri, but in a neutral site in Kansas City. Their non-conference games should be a cakewalk. At home Kansas will play Florida International, Toledo, I-AA Southeastern Louisiana and Central Michigan. Southeastern Louisiana finished 2-9 in the Southland conference, and Toledo also ended the season under .500. Do not be surprised to see Kansas with less than 3 losses at the end of the season.

2. MEMPHIS
Comment: The start the season against Ole Miss, Arkansas State, and Jacksonville State, three teams that finished around or under .500. Their toughest game will be against Southern Mississippi, who went 9-4 in 2006.

3. HAWAII
Comment: The Rainbow Warriors have an easy road to a one-loss season. Hawaii's non-conference schedule includes away games at Charleston Southern, UNLV and a rebuilding Washington who has a brutal schedule. Hawaii also travels to play 1-AA Northern Colorado who finished 1-10 last season in the Big Sky Conference. Charleston Southern finished 9-2, but in an easy Big South Conference. Hawaii plays Boise State and Fresno State at home and San Jose State and Nevada on the road.

4. CONNECTICUT
Comment: Even though the Huskies play in the competitive Big East, their schedule does not reflect that fact. The Huskies play I-AA Maine, and two of the worst Division 1-A teams in the last ten years: Duke and Temple. UConn also plays 7 of its 12 games at home.

5. MISSOURI
Comment: The Tigers do not play Texas this season, and they will play Nebraska at home. They open the season against perennial doormat Illinois in St. Louis, and the next game will be against Mississippi, who finished 4-8 last year and will probably finish around the same this season. They next two games will be against Western Michigan and Illinois State. Illinois State went 9-4 in 2006, which was respectable, but Missouri should beat them easily. Western Michigan went 8-5 last season, but Missouri is 8-2 in their last 10 home openers. Oklahoma on the road will almost be a guaranteed loss.

6. INDIANA
Comment: The Hoosiers do not play Michigan and Ohio State this season in Big Ten play. In their non-conference games they will play I-AA Indiana State, Western Michigan, Akron and Ball State. Indiana State finished 1-10 in the Gateway conference last season, and Western Michigan and Akron both finished in the middle of the pack in the MAC Conference. The Hoosiers play Purdue and Penn State at home, but neither team will finish the season at the top of the Big Ten. The only tough games Indiana will play will be road games at Iowa and Wisconsin.

7. NAVY
Comment: Navy will play only 4 teams who finished with winning records last season: Rutgers, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame and Wake Forest. Other Navy opponents include, Duke, Temple, North Texas, Army and Air Force. None of those teams won more than 3 games last season.

8. TEXAS TECH
Comment: Besides home games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, the Red Raiders will play Southern Methodist and Rice. SMU finished 6-6 last season in Conference USA, and Rice finished one game over .500 in the same conference. Tech also plays I-AA Northwestern State, who finished 4-7 in 2006.

9. NORTHWESTERN
Comment: The Wildcats play a manageable schedule this season. They play 1-AA Northeastern, Eastern Michigan, Nevada and Duke. Duke and Eastern Michigan both finished in last place in their respective conferences. Northwestern also plays Minnesota and Indiana at home, which are winnable games for the Wildcats.

10. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Comment: Middle Tennessee State plays at Louisville and LSU to start the season. In the middle of the season games against Memphis and Virginia will test a team that went 7-6 last season and made a bowl game.

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