College football is like a keeper league in which the commissioner keeps changing the rules. You think you have a solid player, then he declares for the NFL draft. Next, your star wideout heads home to play D-II ball. But luckily, a freshman comes out of nowhere, breaks all sorts of school records and wins you your league single-handedly (thank you, Michael Crabtree).
It happens. Fantasy college football's unpredictability is unlike any other sport. Even more difficult than predicting their on-the-field success year-to-year is how they'll fare in the NFL. Is that quarterback you love the next Heath Shuler or Tony Romo in the wings? The next Rashaan Salaam or the next Priest Holmes?
Now with Bowl season upon us, we have much more to watch for. How will these college fantasy football studs make the jump to the NFL? It's almost impossible to tell. We'll give it a whirl here as we present you 10 college stars that you can count on next season in the pros...we think:
2007 Stats: 932 yards, seven TDs
Comment: Rookie receivers have this stigma attached to them: in their debut seasons, they don't produce quality fantasy numbers. There have been exceptions (Moss, Boldin, Clayton). We think Bowman's next in that line of players. He not only has great size (6-4, 220), but also great hands and speed (4.5). Think Terrell Owens or Keyshawn Johnson without the mouth. The Philadelphia Eagles midway through round one would make the most sense, or perhaps the Washington Redskins. If not, the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars or San Francisco 49ers could grab him late.
2007 Stats: 4,170 yards, 33 TDs, 10 INTs
Comment: The strong-armed mastermind behind the Tigers 11-2 season, Daniel was rightly named the Offensive Player of the Year by the Big 12 — a first for a Missouri player. So what if he couldn't top the Oklahoma Sooners, Daniel will do everything in his power to stop Darren McFadden from stealing the spotlight when they meet in the Cotton Bowl on New Years. The Heisman voters snubbed him, but it won't matter in the NFL. He's strong enough to handle NFL punishment and has enough of an arm to ably target downfield receivers.
2007 Stats: 681 yards, five TDs
Comment: We could do without the attitude, but the bottom line is the kid can play. When he has it together both mentally and physically, he can take over the game, whether it's on special teams or by exhibiting his 4.3 speed on the outside. And he's a legitimate receiver rather than just a burner. If you're in a league that counts special teams stats toward the individual, Jackson could be a real steal on draft day. He'd surely love to stay out west; the Seattle Seahawks could use some getting younger, or perhaps the San Francisco 49ers snag him to form the Jackson Two.
2007 Stats: 1,117 yards, 11 TDs
Comment: We'll look back on the 2007 Razorbacks backfield and wonder how in the world they ever co-existed. Jones is just a junior — does he bolt now or try to step out of Darren McFadden's shadow by blowing up next season at Arkansas? Having to learn a new system under Bobby Petrino, we think he'll jump. NFL coaches always have room for a back that welcomes contact and runs a 4.4. Jones was also the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year, finishing third in the country in kick returns (31.3 ypr).
2007 Stats: 1,725 yards, 15 TDs
Comment: McFadden is hands down the consensus No. 1 back. The Miami Dolphins are fine with Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman, so McFadden's likely suitors include the New York Jets, New England Patriots (with the San Francisco 49ers pick) and Oakland Raiders. He's the complete package — 4.4 speed, an NFL body, great tenacity, ball-catching ability and even an arm. Just how quickly he becomes 'The Guy' depends on the situation. A lot of NFL teams have at least decent ground games; the perfect fantasy scenario would be a team like the Houston Texans or Seattle Seahawks trading up to get McFadden, although that seems unlikely. Our guess is Oakland lands him, trading up to No. 2 with the Jets.
2007 Stats: 1,526 yards, 16 TDs
Comment: Would the Chicago Bears dare draft the local kid in round two, undoubtedly causing whiny Cedric Benson to do what he does best? It's possible. A back in the second round makes more sense for teams like the Bears, New York Jets, Detroit Lions or New England Patriots. They'd all be lucky to get him. Mendenhall's versatility is his calling card. He can be used as a back, split out wide or in the slot. Next year, he's likely a third-down back with the potential to blossom into more. Mendenhall would have been the perfect pick for the Pats had Spygate not claimed the second of its first-round picks.
2007 Stats: 4,258 yards, 28 TDs, 18 INTs
Comment: Ryan could be the second playcaller gone, likely by the Chicago Cubs or Baltimore Ravens, during the start of the first round. He had a miserable second half and his team followe suit. NFL general managers have to love Ryan's never-say-die attitude, which he showed off at Virginia Tech and Clemson this season. Among Ryan's qualities is his ability to make all throws — deep to his wideouts, or short to his tight ends and backs. That's just what the NFL needs as it gradually moves toward a pass-centric style. He also has surprising mobility for a towering quarterback.
2007 Stats: 1,469 yards, 10 TDs
Comment: Stewart and Felix Jones are second on most teams' draft-board for backs. One will probably go to the Houston Texans in the teens; the other will get picked up by the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks or falls to the second round. Jones is the more elusive back. At 5-11, 235, Stewart's a bull. His abilities were upstaged by Dennis Dixon's Heisman pursuit. While he lacks breakaway speed, he's durable and hard to bring down. If he doesn't get scooped up by Houston, we could see him stealing carries from a Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones by mid-season.
2007 Stats: 306 yards, three TDs
Comment: A wrist injury cut his senior season short, but that shouldn't put a damper on Sweed's draft stock. His size allows him to muscle most any corner and go up and get fades and deep balls. He's also shown he isn't afraid to go to the middle. Sweed will be almost 24 by the time he suits up for the 2008 NFL season opener — he's ready to produce against men now. Adding Sweed to a Tennessee Titans receiving corps that already includes Bo Scaife would seem too good to be true for Vince Young. More likely, he ends up on the Seattle Seahawks, with a wide-open and already established passing game.
2007 Stats: 3,351 yards, 36 TDs, 10 INTs
Comment: Woodson will land wherever Matt Ryan doesn't — or vice versa. He's No. 1 on the UPDATE! draft board. He stood in against better defenses than Brohm and Ryan, fiercer pass rushes, and had less talen to work with. His bulky frame's perfect for a prospective team and his toughness is second to none. Stick him on the Chicago Bears with Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian and the two tight ends, and the Bears would suddenly look ferocious again.
It happens. Fantasy college football's unpredictability is unlike any other sport. Even more difficult than predicting their on-the-field success year-to-year is how they'll fare in the NFL. Is that quarterback you love the next Heath Shuler or Tony Romo in the wings? The next Rashaan Salaam or the next Priest Holmes?
Now with Bowl season upon us, we have much more to watch for. How will these college fantasy football studs make the jump to the NFL? It's almost impossible to tell. We'll give it a whirl here as we present you 10 college stars that you can count on next season in the pros...we think:
ADARIUS BOWMAN
Oklahoma State Cowboys, WR2007 Stats: 932 yards, seven TDs
Comment: Rookie receivers have this stigma attached to them: in their debut seasons, they don't produce quality fantasy numbers. There have been exceptions (Moss, Boldin, Clayton). We think Bowman's next in that line of players. He not only has great size (6-4, 220), but also great hands and speed (4.5). Think Terrell Owens or Keyshawn Johnson without the mouth. The Philadelphia Eagles midway through round one would make the most sense, or perhaps the Washington Redskins. If not, the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars or San Francisco 49ers could grab him late.
CHASE DANIEL
Missouri Tigers, QB2007 Stats: 4,170 yards, 33 TDs, 10 INTs
Comment: The strong-armed mastermind behind the Tigers 11-2 season, Daniel was rightly named the Offensive Player of the Year by the Big 12 — a first for a Missouri player. So what if he couldn't top the Oklahoma Sooners, Daniel will do everything in his power to stop Darren McFadden from stealing the spotlight when they meet in the Cotton Bowl on New Years. The Heisman voters snubbed him, but it won't matter in the NFL. He's strong enough to handle NFL punishment and has enough of an arm to ably target downfield receivers.
DESEAN JACKSON
California Golden Bears, WR2007 Stats: 681 yards, five TDs
Comment: We could do without the attitude, but the bottom line is the kid can play. When he has it together both mentally and physically, he can take over the game, whether it's on special teams or by exhibiting his 4.3 speed on the outside. And he's a legitimate receiver rather than just a burner. If you're in a league that counts special teams stats toward the individual, Jackson could be a real steal on draft day. He'd surely love to stay out west; the Seattle Seahawks could use some getting younger, or perhaps the San Francisco 49ers snag him to form the Jackson Two.
FELIX JONES
Arkansas Razorbacks, RB2007 Stats: 1,117 yards, 11 TDs
Comment: We'll look back on the 2007 Razorbacks backfield and wonder how in the world they ever co-existed. Jones is just a junior — does he bolt now or try to step out of Darren McFadden's shadow by blowing up next season at Arkansas? Having to learn a new system under Bobby Petrino, we think he'll jump. NFL coaches always have room for a back that welcomes contact and runs a 4.4. Jones was also the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year, finishing third in the country in kick returns (31.3 ypr).
DARREN MCFADDEN
Arkansas Razorbacks, RB2007 Stats: 1,725 yards, 15 TDs
Comment: McFadden is hands down the consensus No. 1 back. The Miami Dolphins are fine with Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman, so McFadden's likely suitors include the New York Jets, New England Patriots (with the San Francisco 49ers pick) and Oakland Raiders. He's the complete package — 4.4 speed, an NFL body, great tenacity, ball-catching ability and even an arm. Just how quickly he becomes 'The Guy' depends on the situation. A lot of NFL teams have at least decent ground games; the perfect fantasy scenario would be a team like the Houston Texans or Seattle Seahawks trading up to get McFadden, although that seems unlikely. Our guess is Oakland lands him, trading up to No. 2 with the Jets.
RASHARD MENDENHALL
Illinois Fighting Illini, RB2007 Stats: 1,526 yards, 16 TDs
Comment: Would the Chicago Bears dare draft the local kid in round two, undoubtedly causing whiny Cedric Benson to do what he does best? It's possible. A back in the second round makes more sense for teams like the Bears, New York Jets, Detroit Lions or New England Patriots. They'd all be lucky to get him. Mendenhall's versatility is his calling card. He can be used as a back, split out wide or in the slot. Next year, he's likely a third-down back with the potential to blossom into more. Mendenhall would have been the perfect pick for the Pats had Spygate not claimed the second of its first-round picks.
MATT RYAN
Boston College Eagles, QB 2007 Stats: 4,258 yards, 28 TDs, 18 INTs
Comment: Ryan could be the second playcaller gone, likely by the Chicago Cubs or Baltimore Ravens, during the start of the first round. He had a miserable second half and his team followe suit. NFL general managers have to love Ryan's never-say-die attitude, which he showed off at Virginia Tech and Clemson this season. Among Ryan's qualities is his ability to make all throws — deep to his wideouts, or short to his tight ends and backs. That's just what the NFL needs as it gradually moves toward a pass-centric style. He also has surprising mobility for a towering quarterback.
JONATHAN STEWART
Oregon Ducks, RB2007 Stats: 1,469 yards, 10 TDs
Comment: Stewart and Felix Jones are second on most teams' draft-board for backs. One will probably go to the Houston Texans in the teens; the other will get picked up by the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks or falls to the second round. Jones is the more elusive back. At 5-11, 235, Stewart's a bull. His abilities were upstaged by Dennis Dixon's Heisman pursuit. While he lacks breakaway speed, he's durable and hard to bring down. If he doesn't get scooped up by Houston, we could see him stealing carries from a Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones by mid-season.
LIMAS SWEED
Texas Longhorns, WR2007 Stats: 306 yards, three TDs
Comment: A wrist injury cut his senior season short, but that shouldn't put a damper on Sweed's draft stock. His size allows him to muscle most any corner and go up and get fades and deep balls. He's also shown he isn't afraid to go to the middle. Sweed will be almost 24 by the time he suits up for the 2008 NFL season opener — he's ready to produce against men now. Adding Sweed to a Tennessee Titans receiving corps that already includes Bo Scaife would seem too good to be true for Vince Young. More likely, he ends up on the Seattle Seahawks, with a wide-open and already established passing game.
ANDRE WOODSON
Kentucky Wildcats, QB2007 Stats: 3,351 yards, 36 TDs, 10 INTs
Comment: Woodson will land wherever Matt Ryan doesn't — or vice versa. He's No. 1 on the UPDATE! draft board. He stood in against better defenses than Brohm and Ryan, fiercer pass rushes, and had less talen to work with. His bulky frame's perfect for a prospective team and his toughness is second to none. Stick him on the Chicago Bears with Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian and the two tight ends, and the Bears would suddenly look ferocious again.
