UPDATE! let's you know who to take early, late and not at all

Closer is the most unpredictable position in fantasy baseball. A stud closer does so much more than save games. He can help a fantasy team in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts as well. Middle relievers who excel in ERA, WHIP, and K's not only help in those categories, but usually have a shot at closing some time during the season. It's a fickle position because even the best can struggle at times. UPDATE! lets you know which relievers will fold and which to hold for the 2007 season.



HOT 16

1. JOE NATHAN
Minnesota Twins
Comment: No one has been better than Nathan's 0.91 WHIP the last three years, while his 12.51 strikeouts per nine innings (K / 9) was tops among full-time closers last year. He also has four straight years of sub 3.00 ERA and sub .200 batting average against. He's about as reliable and dominant as you can get.

2. B.J. RYAN
Toronto Blue Jays
Comment: Solidified himself as one of the game's elite last year. His 1.37 ERA ranked second, 0.857 WHIP was third and 37 saves rated fifth. His K / BB improved for the third year in a row. He did it pitching in the tough AL East.

3. FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ
Los Angeles Angels
Comment: Simply put, K-Rod has been dominant the last three years. His highest ERA ever was 3.03 in his rookie year and his highest WHIP ever was 1.15 in 2005. Last year's MLB saves leader (47) should have another monster season. Bid full value.

4. MARIANO RIVERA
New York Yankees
Comment: Mariano in a contract year? How much better can he do than his 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP last year? Age, decrease in K's, and elbow problems last year may be flags to some, but the numbers say draft with confidence.

5. BILLY WAGNER
New York Mets
Comment: He posted a 2.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.97 K / 9. Those would be great one-year stats, but they're actually his career averages. Last year's 11.73 K / 9 indicate that he's far from done. Wagner will get plenty of save opportunities with Mets' great lineup.

6. JONATHAN PAPELBON
Boston Red Sox
Comment: The Papelbon starter experiment didn't last too long, and now he wants to be the next Mariano. He has a right to think that way, as his performance last year was undeniably dominant with a 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 35 saves. Showed a little fade in the second half last year, but the numbers were still solid.

7. J.J. PUTZ
Seattle Mariners
Comment: His K / 9 skyrocketed to an amazing 11.98. Combined with only 13 walks in 78 innings, that's a recipe for success. It remains to be seen if he can continue his amazing 6.0 K / BB ratio, but at 30, he is in his pitching prime. Keep an eye on his elbow.

8. TREVOR HOFFMAN
San Diego Padres
Comment: Only indicator of age (39) is a slow, but steady decline in K's. However, he's still tenacious, has great control and is the all-time MLB leader in saves (482). There’ll be plenty of save chances for this Hall of Famer and the Padres will be counting on him.

9. HUSTON STREET
Oakland A's
Comment: Will have bumpy stretches (11 blown saves in 2006) as he matures as a pitcher. Has stellar control, keeps the ball in the park and still has upside. Strikes out enough batters (8.53 K / 9) to be one of the Top 10.

10. TAKASHI SAITO
Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment: Stellar ''rookie" season in which he baffled MLB hitters to the tune of 12.29 K / 9. Only question mark is his age (37) and lack of a track record. Even if his numbers slip a little, he's still Top 10 closer material.

11. FRANCISCO CORDERO
Milwaukee Brewers
Comment: Was demoted from closer role in Texas, which could have been attributed to early-season shoulder problems. Value will be suppressed due to bad first half (11 blown saves), but all other numbers show stability and Top 10 closer stuff. Expect a strong rebound.

12. CHAD CORDERO
Washington Nationals
Comment: Has established himself as an elite closer. Once he gained command of the strike zone, it translated into lower ERA (3.19) and WHIP (1.10). Gave up more homers than usual (13) last year, but he’s young and maturing.

13. BOBBY JENKS
Chicago White Sox
Comment: High walk rate keeps him from being in elite company, but he makes up for it with 10.33 K / 9 heat. Struggled after the Break last year, but he is young at 26 and still learning how to pitch. Count on him for saves, but not ERA and WHIP help.

14. TOM GORDON
Philadelphia Phillies
Comment: Had a brilliant first half with a bumpy finish, a respectable 34 saves, 3.35 ERA and 1.27 WHIP to show. At 39, one has to wonder how he'll do down the stretch once again. Flash will dazzle when healthy, but periods of missed time are to be expected.

15. BRIAN FUENTES
Colorado Rockies
Comment: Has posted two solid years in a row while pitching at notorious Coors Field. Only concern are his 26 walks, but his 10.06 K / 9 keeps the numbers modest. How many save opportunities the Rockies can get for him remains a question mark.

16. OCTAVIO DOTEL
Kansas City Royals
Comment: This once-dominant reliever attempted to come back after Tommy John surgery in 2005 and the results were disastrous (10.80 ERA, 2.90 WHIP). He is fully healthy now and there isn’t much competition in the Royals pen. Posting 30 saves is not out of reach.


PHOTO BY TOMASSO DEROSA
New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is in the walk year of his contract and should pitch with renewed purpose.



UPDATE! SLEEPERS

1. JOEL ZUMAYA
Detroit Tigers
Comment: His great numbers will help you in K's, ERA and WHIP. Batters had only 56 hits off him in 83 IP, and 97 of them whiffed, but he did walk 42 batters. Has said he wants to take some heat off and improve his control this year, which will improve his numbers. Once Todd Jones blows up, the rest will be history.

2. BRAD LIDGE
Houston Astros
Comment: Last year's head-scratching, rocky season makes Lidge undervalued this year. As with most pitchers, his control is the key, and it’s been blamed on mechanics. No other reliever has averaged more K's the last three years (121 K), and last year's 12.48 K / 9 means his stuff is still filthy.

3. ERIC GAGNE
Texas Rangers
Comment: If he's healthy, he could be the best closer in baseball. He's being drafted in rounds 12-18 in snake drafts and can be had for under $20 in auction drafts, which means there's plenty of room for profit. Reports out of Spring Training say his fastball hasn’t reached mid 90's yet, but his changeup is excellent. High risk, high reward.

4. JOSE VALVERDE
Arizona Diamondbacks
Comment: His 2006 was quite a roller coaster. He started as closer, was demoted to Triple-A and returned to regain his job. He's dominated in the past, he's only 27. His 12.58 K / 9 last year was better than Nathan, K-Rod or Wagner.

5. MATT CAPPS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: Pittsburgh is grooming him to be their closer of the future. The question is when, not if. A young pitcher who throws in the mid 90's, but also has very good control (just 12 walks in 80 innings). With a few less homers and a little more experience, he could be the next Huston Street.

6. HENRY OWENS
Florida Marlins
Comment: Best spring number so far in Marlins camp. His last two years in the minors have been dominating. The fact that Taylor Tankersley is a proven lefty and his shoulder needs careful watching opens the door for Owens. It remains to be seen if he has a closer's mentality or if he can do it at the big league level.

7. BOB HOWRY
Chicago Cubs
Comment: The numbers don't lie. His basic skills are much better than the incumbent closer, Ryan Dempster. Astute owners can sense an opportunity. Has really harnessed his control the last two years at 2.0 BB / 9 and keeps the ball in the park. Stash him away if you have space.

8. JONATHAN BROXTON
Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment: Had a superb rookie season in which he sported a robust 11.44 K / 9, 2.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Takashi Saito was superb also last season, but at his age, one slip up can make the difference. Without a doubt, the Dodgers see Broxton as their future closer.

9. MIKE GONZALEZ
Atlanta Braves
Comment: Was perfect in save opportunities last year with 24 and his stats back it up. Should get the occasional lefty save when Wickman is ineffective. Consider him a cheaper version of Joel Zumaya that you could count on for low ERA and good K's.

10. AKINORI OTSUKA
Texas Rangers
Comment: The same injury history that depresses Eric Gagne's value makes Otsuka a sleeper as well. Showed he has a closer's mentality by saving 32 out of 36. His K / 9 is decreasing, but he's more than made up for it with pinpoint control (1.7 BB / 9). Other teams are interested in him as well.



NOT THESE GUYS

1. TODD JONES
Detroit Tigers
Comment: Any time the ball's put into play as many times as Jones allowed, bad things can happen. In 64 innings last year, batters hit .276 against him and only 28 of them struck out. Fireballer Joel Zumaya is waiting in the wings.

2. JASON ISRINGHAUSEN
St. Louis Cardinals
Comment: Posted career-worst numbers as a closer with a 1.46 WHIP, 10 homers and 10 blown saves last year. Most worrisome is the three-year trend in BB / 9 (2.7, 4.1, 5.9). Had surgery on his hip, which will hopefully rectify his control.

3. RYAN DEMPSTER
Chicago Cubs
Comment: Recorded 24 saves last year, but also had 8 blown saves, a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. If you want to see smoke coming out of manager Lou Piniella's ears, watch Cubs highlights. He’s been known to have a short fuse with closers.

4. DAVID WEATHERS
Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Was terrible before the Break, but picked it up in the second half. Managed 12 saves but blew 7 more. Had trouble keeping the ball in the park. His only value right now is that he is the closer, but that is more likely to change than not.

5. SETH MCCLUNG
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Comment: Was atrocious as a starter, so the Devil Rays decided to make him a reliever, where he did a little better: 22 IP, 4.50 ERA, 21 K, 21 BB. A reliever without any control is destined for failure. It's tough to be a Devil Rays fan.

6. ARMANDO BENITEZ
San Francisco Giants
Comment: K / 9 has been decreasing last three years and walks have been rising. Two things going for him are a weak San Francisco pen and a couple of other teams are interested in him. He will get the opportunity to close. And if he is healthy, 35 saves is not out of the question.

7. SOLOMON TORRES
Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: Had a great month of September, in which he converted 12 of 13 save chances. Reason says he'll fall back to earth. His 6.94 K / 9 last year was unusually high, but his 3.7 BB / 9 says he walks too many batters. He is the incumbent, but a shaky one.

8. CHRIS RAY
Baltimore Orioles
Comment: Maturing, 25-year-old who pitches in a tough division and for a team that produces little save chances. Needs better control (3.7 BB / 9) and keep the ball in the park better (10 HR).

9. JOE BOROWSKI
Cleveland Indians
Comment: Thanks to Keith Foulke retiring, he has the opportunity on a good team. Like most pitchers, his success is based on control, which was an unpleasant 4.29 BB / 9. But he managed to get by with a respectable 8.29 K / 9. Expect decent save numbers, but keep the antacid nearby.

10. BOB WICKMAN
Atlanta Braves
Comment: Would like to see a little more dominance from a closer, but he gets the job done. Started to unravel in Cleveland (4.18 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), but pitched lights out after being traded to Atlanta (1.04 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Draft in the middle rounds, but get insurance.




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