It's a slow start to the home run race. Thankfully, we're just one week into the new season. A-Rod may be a OK with a nice four-homer flourish to kick off his MVP run, but plenty of familiar faces have struggled out of the gate: Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado and David Ortiz to name a few.

But one player whose slow start should be cause for concern is Philadelphia first baseman Ryan Howard. While the other guys have proven track records, Howard's 58-homer season in 2006 came in jut his first full big league season. Forget the fact he's homerless though six games and 23 at bats in 2007. Plenty of other signs say he won't do it again.

Some things in life simply don't mix, such as oil and water, drinking and driving, and Donald Trump and Rosie O'Donnell. In baseball, it's batting average and strikeouts. Lost in the hype of Howard's magnificent breakout season is the fact that he struck out 181 times. Yes, home run hitters strike out a lot, and Howard hit an amazing 58 of them. However, he also batted .313, which can safely be attributed to good fortune. His batting average should have been 20 points lower. That's not just my opinion, history tells us why.

In the history of baseball, only 15 players have struck out more than 180 times in a season. Of those, only two have hit .300 or better (13 percent). Bobby Bonds struck out 189 times while batting .302 in 1970 and Howard did his thing last year. Only two others hit over .280, and nine of them hit under .270. In other words, players who strike out a lot usually don't have lofty batting averages.

To take it one step further, I looked at players who struck out 160 or more times in a season. The numbers are even more telling: There were a total of 64 players in the history of baseball that struck out 160 times or more. Of those, 42 hit lower than .270 (66 percent) and only four hit above .300 (that's only 6 percent). Two of them were the aforementioned Howard and Bonds, and Sosa did it twice, in 1998 and 2000. (Shall we put an asterisk next to Sosa?) None of the players that hit .300 did so again the following year.

Don't get me wrong. Howard is a bona fide MVP. But in fantasy land, batting average is an integral part of a hitter's value. It is safe to assume that Howard will hit under .300 this year. Not only do historical stats say so, but the word is out on Howard.

He will be pitched around and the batters behind him are less than intimidating. Pat Burrell has proven to be a strikeout artist himself, and behind him will probably be Aaron Rowand, Wes Helms, and Rod Barajas. Manager Charlie Manuel recognized this and recently changed his lineup, shifting Howard to third and Chase Utley to cleanup. This should help Howard see some better pitches.

Like any player, Howard could adjust his swing for more contact to hit for a higher average. But somehow, I don't see that happening. My projection for Howard is .290 average, 95 runs, 45 home runs, 135 RBI. They are Top 10 numbers by any standard, but every dollar counts in fantasy.

Travis Hafner, Mark Teixeira, and Lance Berkman were cheaper alternatives. If you can peddle Howard, consider getting one of these guys in a return package. The best time to make out like a bandit is when the season is still young.

Home runs sure are glorious, but in fantasy (especially rotisserie) it's just one statistic among many.