Under the postseason glare and the lights at Turner Field, Houston Astros centerfielder Carlos Beltran began one of the great hitting binges in Major League history.
Beltran, then just 27, slugged a pair of home runs in Game 5 of the 2004 National League Division Series. His offensive outburst gave Houston a 12-3 win over Atlanta and propelled the Astros on to the Championship Series. Even though St. Louis — and not the Astros — eventually earned a trip to the World Series, Beltran did his part to push the series to the limit, connecting on homers in each of the next four games.
His solo shot in the seventh inning of Game 4 proved to be the game-winner and evened the NLCS at two games apiece. It also was a postseason-record fifth straight game that Beltran went deep. And it marked his eighth homer of the playoffs, tying Barry Bonds for the most home runs in a single postseason.
The crack of Beltran's bat mashing ball probably sounded an awful lot like cash registers opening. Cha-Ching!
For much of his career, Beltran excelled in the relative obscurity of Kansas City. But in the final year of his contract, Beltran was dealt to Houston in June 2004 as part of a three-team deal. The most coveted player on the upcoming free agent market suddenly had talented bats protecting him in the lineup and the ensuing media glare would anoint him a superstar.
He made the most of his walk year, batting a combined .267 with 38 homers, 104 RBI, 121 runs and 42 stolen bases. That garnered him one of the richest contracts in pro sports history — a seven-year, $119 million deal with the New York Mets.
Yet after delivering so much in the clutch and leaving an indelible mark on postseason history, Beltran was equally horrific as a Met in 2005. Beltran will be remembered by the Flushing Faithful as one of the biggest busts in Mets history, on a par with Bobby Bonilla and Roger Cedeno. Although he rebounded with a strong 2006 campaign and led the Mets to the postseason, no one will forget that Beltran batted just .266 with 16 homers, 78 RBI, 83 runs and 17 stolen bases in 2005.
Beltran's surge one season and fizzle the next is hardly unique. That's baseball. But it came in the final year of his contract, which begs the question: Is the monster season in a contract year a baseball myth or the secret weapon of savvy rotisserie managers everywhere? Fantasy Sports Update! examines recent history to turn up other examples of players posting career numbers in a walk year.
It's definitely a trend worth watching when putting together a fantasy roster come March. The production gap between landing Beltran circa 2004 versus one year later can make the difference between first and fourth place in your league standings, not to mention a wasted high draft pick.
Pay attention. The economics of baseball are as round as well, a baseball. You know all about Oakland GM Billy Beane's use of sabermetrics to knock big-market teams down to size, as chronicled in Michael Lewis' instant 2003 classic, "Moneyball."
UPDATE! offers you our own economic litmus test. Simply put: Beware the big leaguer who signs a fat contract after a career year. That's doubly true if he jumped into the free-agent waters and landed with a different team.
Here are two cases in point.
San Francisco slugger Barry Bonds hit .328 and belted 73 homers with 137 RBI and 129 runs in 2001, the walk year of all-time. Although he managed only 46 homers the following season, he was hardly a bust. Bonds batted .370 with 110 RBI and 117 runs. The fact that Bonds resigned with the Giants no doubt helped.
Third baseman Adrian Beltre used a monster 2004 with the Los Angeles Dodgers to cash in with Seattle during the off-season. After batting .334 with 48 homers, 121 RBI and 104 runs, the Mariners signed Beltre for five years and $64 million in December 2004.
Unlike with Beltran, Seattle GM Bill Bavasi is still waiting for the payoff. Beltre hit just .255 (79 points lower) with 29 fewer homers, just 87 RBI and 69 runs in a train-wreck 2005 season. Last year wasn't much better. Go figure — Bavasi was in charge of the Dodgers' farm system until being named Seattle's GM after the 2003 season.
Pitcher Eric Milton and rightfielder J.D. Drew are two more examples of players who used big 2004 numbers to cash in and then go bust. Let's not forget the Yankees ponied up a four-year $39.95 million deal to starter Carl Pavano, who has made just 17 starts over the last two seasons. You can't blame the players for making the money-grab. And you can't expect them to pick up there they left off in a new town, new lineup and maybe even a new league.
Desperate GMs aren't at fault for feeding this phenomenon, either. They need to upgrade their team and there's a limited pool of impact players available. Hey, if Bavasi can't get it right — he certainly knew the makeup of Beltre and whether he could handle being the man somewhere else — how can anyone?
We'll try. If there's a rock-bottom rule to filling out a fantasy roster, it's to take guys who are consistent producers. That sounds easier than reality. Minimize your risks, right? One way of doing that is avoiding the temptation to snag the guy coming off a career year, especially if he's wearing a new uniform. Odds are he won't be the same.
UPDATE! has you covered. Check out this list of players in the final year of contracts worth picking up. Conversely, we'll highlight guys who signed for big bucks after posting career numbers in 2006. If you want to win your league, you might stay clear of these party crashers.
Beltran, then just 27, slugged a pair of home runs in Game 5 of the 2004 National League Division Series. His offensive outburst gave Houston a 12-3 win over Atlanta and propelled the Astros on to the Championship Series. Even though St. Louis — and not the Astros — eventually earned a trip to the World Series, Beltran did his part to push the series to the limit, connecting on homers in each of the next four games.
His solo shot in the seventh inning of Game 4 proved to be the game-winner and evened the NLCS at two games apiece. It also was a postseason-record fifth straight game that Beltran went deep. And it marked his eighth homer of the playoffs, tying Barry Bonds for the most home runs in a single postseason.
The crack of Beltran's bat mashing ball probably sounded an awful lot like cash registers opening. Cha-Ching!
For much of his career, Beltran excelled in the relative obscurity of Kansas City. But in the final year of his contract, Beltran was dealt to Houston in June 2004 as part of a three-team deal. The most coveted player on the upcoming free agent market suddenly had talented bats protecting him in the lineup and the ensuing media glare would anoint him a superstar.
He made the most of his walk year, batting a combined .267 with 38 homers, 104 RBI, 121 runs and 42 stolen bases. That garnered him one of the richest contracts in pro sports history — a seven-year, $119 million deal with the New York Mets.
Yet after delivering so much in the clutch and leaving an indelible mark on postseason history, Beltran was equally horrific as a Met in 2005. Beltran will be remembered by the Flushing Faithful as one of the biggest busts in Mets history, on a par with Bobby Bonilla and Roger Cedeno. Although he rebounded with a strong 2006 campaign and led the Mets to the postseason, no one will forget that Beltran batted just .266 with 16 homers, 78 RBI, 83 runs and 17 stolen bases in 2005.
Beltran's surge one season and fizzle the next is hardly unique. That's baseball. But it came in the final year of his contract, which begs the question: Is the monster season in a contract year a baseball myth or the secret weapon of savvy rotisserie managers everywhere? Fantasy Sports Update! examines recent history to turn up other examples of players posting career numbers in a walk year.
It's definitely a trend worth watching when putting together a fantasy roster come March. The production gap between landing Beltran circa 2004 versus one year later can make the difference between first and fourth place in your league standings, not to mention a wasted high draft pick.
Pay attention. The economics of baseball are as round as well, a baseball. You know all about Oakland GM Billy Beane's use of sabermetrics to knock big-market teams down to size, as chronicled in Michael Lewis' instant 2003 classic, "Moneyball."
UPDATE! offers you our own economic litmus test. Simply put: Beware the big leaguer who signs a fat contract after a career year. That's doubly true if he jumped into the free-agent waters and landed with a different team.
Here are two cases in point.
San Francisco slugger Barry Bonds hit .328 and belted 73 homers with 137 RBI and 129 runs in 2001, the walk year of all-time. Although he managed only 46 homers the following season, he was hardly a bust. Bonds batted .370 with 110 RBI and 117 runs. The fact that Bonds resigned with the Giants no doubt helped.
Third baseman Adrian Beltre used a monster 2004 with the Los Angeles Dodgers to cash in with Seattle during the off-season. After batting .334 with 48 homers, 121 RBI and 104 runs, the Mariners signed Beltre for five years and $64 million in December 2004.
Unlike with Beltran, Seattle GM Bill Bavasi is still waiting for the payoff. Beltre hit just .255 (79 points lower) with 29 fewer homers, just 87 RBI and 69 runs in a train-wreck 2005 season. Last year wasn't much better. Go figure — Bavasi was in charge of the Dodgers' farm system until being named Seattle's GM after the 2003 season.
Pitcher Eric Milton and rightfielder J.D. Drew are two more examples of players who used big 2004 numbers to cash in and then go bust. Let's not forget the Yankees ponied up a four-year $39.95 million deal to starter Carl Pavano, who has made just 17 starts over the last two seasons. You can't blame the players for making the money-grab. And you can't expect them to pick up there they left off in a new town, new lineup and maybe even a new league.
Desperate GMs aren't at fault for feeding this phenomenon, either. They need to upgrade their team and there's a limited pool of impact players available. Hey, if Bavasi can't get it right — he certainly knew the makeup of Beltre and whether he could handle being the man somewhere else — how can anyone?
We'll try. If there's a rock-bottom rule to filling out a fantasy roster, it's to take guys who are consistent producers. That sounds easier than reality. Minimize your risks, right? One way of doing that is avoiding the temptation to snag the guy coming off a career year, especially if he's wearing a new uniform. Odds are he won't be the same.
UPDATE! has you covered. Check out this list of players in the final year of contracts worth picking up. Conversely, we'll highlight guys who signed for big bucks after posting career numbers in 2006. If you want to win your league, you might stay clear of these party crashers.
