Yet another All-Star Game is in the books and your fantasy hiatus is over. If you are in first place in your league, enjoy the view from the top. It may not last much longer. There are plenty scheming to topple you before October — and plenty of time to make it happen.
Understanding how MLB's Second Half might shake out is nearly as important as drafting well. Stars will be on the move by the end of July. Teams will quit the playoff chase. Prospects will get the call to the bigs. These moves are a given. The who and the when — and how it could play to your advantage — that's for the savvy owner to discern.
UPDATE! looks into its crystal ball and offers up a fearless forecast. Here are five storylines to follow in the Second Half and how they might play out:
WILL THERE BE A GARAGE SALE IN CHICAGO?
The White Sox have been dreadful this season. Sitting at 39-47 heading into the All-Star Break, they resemble nothing of the gritty team that won the 2005 World Series. Their age has started to show in the field, where only Jim Thome has batted above .270, and their bullpen has posted a disappointing 5.24 ERA. Now 12 games out of the Wild Card spot, the midseason classic spells the informal end of the White Sox's season. As the White Sox rebuild they should be looking to dump expiring contracts and aging veterans, meaning playoff bound hopefuls might be able to snag high price players at a bargain price. Forget about Buehrle. He just agreed to a four-year, $56 million dollar deal. But what about Jermaine Dye or Tadahito Iguchi? Not to mention Jon Garland, who becomes a free agent after next season. And while Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez both have bloated contracts, they are just the type of pitchers high-payroll teams will target as they make a push for the pennant. While an all out fire sale is unlikely, count on the White Sox to move some big name players before the end of the trade deadline. Suddenly given a new start on a contender expect these under performers to quickly regain that extra bat speed or that zip on that fastball that's been missing.
WILL PEDRO MARTINEZ RETURN TO FORM?
Despite a bit of slide entering the All Star Break, the Mets are still sitting on top of the tough NL East. Now with Pedro Martinez ready to return from a rotator cuff injury the Mets are poised to make a stand and stave off the Braves and Phillies for the NL pennant. But will Martinez return to the high caliber form that has made him the anchor of many fantasy squads throughout his 15-year career in the big leagues? After winning his first five starts last season, injuries slowed Martinez and he went just 4-8 over the remainder of the season. He posted the highest ERA of his career (4.48) and won just nine games. Still, he yielded less than a hit an inning and fanned 137 batters in 132 2/3 innings, so he obviously has some stuff left. Martinez has always been one of baseballs fiercest competitors, and the Mets need him too much for him to pitch just average. Expect him to come out of the box throwing high heat, and while the numbers might not resemble his Cy Young years, a 3.50 ERA and more than a strikeout an inning is still a reasonable benchmark for the future Hall of Famer. He's the type of late-season impact player that could put a needy fantasy squad over the top.
CAN ALBERT PUJOLS REGAIN HIS FORM?
During his first six years in the big leagues Albert Pujols was, perhaps, the most reliable players in all of baseball. In his last three seasons he batted .331, .330 and .331 while belting 46, 41 and 49 homers respectively. Talk about consistency. With just over half of the 2007 season in the books, however, he has suffered from an uncharacteristic power slump. In 310 plate appearances Pujols has recorded just 16 home runs, 52 RBI and 50 runs which, projected throughout a full season, would be the lowest totals of his career. Savvy owners should try and pick up Pujols cheap. The Cardinals resume league play with nine games on the road in ballparks where Pujols has not traditionally shown much power. If he opens up the second half slow, as UPDATE! predicts, then disgruntled owners may be looking to shop him for someone with a little more pop. Don't count him out. Pujols won't stay asleep at the plate for long, especially with his team seven games out and looking to make a playoff run.
WILL THE MARLINS SELL — AGAIN?
The Marlins have traditionally followed an anti-Steinbrenner approach to baseball. Annually fielding the League's lowest payroll, they have tried to win with a young nucleus of players, trading away free agents to be and making the most out of young prospects. The approach paid off big time in 1997 and 2003. The Marlins won the World Series both years and then proceeded to blow up the core of the team. Marquee players such as Moises Alou, Josh Becket, Kevin Brown, Mike Lowell, Paul LoDuca, Edgar Renteria and Gary Sheffield were all traded away or let go as the Marlins cut payroll and reformed their team each time. So will the Marlins be shopping their wares around this season, too? All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera and the charismatic high-kicking Dontrelle Williss are the most likely to be shopped, if only to appraise there value. Both of these name brand players have one year left on their contract, and it would be a surprise if the Marlins pulled out the checkbook to re-sign both. Catcher Miguel Olivo and budding prospect Mike Jacobs could also command some interest on the trade market. In terms of fantasy value, a change of scenery always affects a player's performance. Whether it is a chance to start over, a hitter-friendly ballpark or playing for a contender, traded players look to make the most out of their situation, especially coming from a team like the non-contending Marlins.
WHAT PROSPECT COULD MAKE A SPLASH?
Perhaps one of the best prospects in all of baseball, Diamondbacks prodigy Justin Upton has all the trappings of a star player in the making. In 52 games with Arizona's Double-A affiliate, the Mobile Bay Bears, Upton has wowed scouts and team officials alike. His current line reads: .302, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 34 R. Pretty impressive considering he's just 20. Upton, a centerfielder, was given a record $6.1 million signing bonus by Diamondbacks brass, so even they saw his potential from the get go. If Arizona is not in contention by September (and they won't be) expect Upton to make an appearance on the big league roster. And if injuries or poor play has limited production out of your outfield slot, then feel free to plug Upton right in.
Lamberti is UPDATE! Editor in Chief.
Understanding how MLB's Second Half might shake out is nearly as important as drafting well. Stars will be on the move by the end of July. Teams will quit the playoff chase. Prospects will get the call to the bigs. These moves are a given. The who and the when — and how it could play to your advantage — that's for the savvy owner to discern.
UPDATE! looks into its crystal ball and offers up a fearless forecast. Here are five storylines to follow in the Second Half and how they might play out:
WILL THERE BE A GARAGE SALE IN CHICAGO?
The White Sox have been dreadful this season. Sitting at 39-47 heading into the All-Star Break, they resemble nothing of the gritty team that won the 2005 World Series. Their age has started to show in the field, where only Jim Thome has batted above .270, and their bullpen has posted a disappointing 5.24 ERA. Now 12 games out of the Wild Card spot, the midseason classic spells the informal end of the White Sox's season. As the White Sox rebuild they should be looking to dump expiring contracts and aging veterans, meaning playoff bound hopefuls might be able to snag high price players at a bargain price. Forget about Buehrle. He just agreed to a four-year, $56 million dollar deal. But what about Jermaine Dye or Tadahito Iguchi? Not to mention Jon Garland, who becomes a free agent after next season. And while Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez both have bloated contracts, they are just the type of pitchers high-payroll teams will target as they make a push for the pennant. While an all out fire sale is unlikely, count on the White Sox to move some big name players before the end of the trade deadline. Suddenly given a new start on a contender expect these under performers to quickly regain that extra bat speed or that zip on that fastball that's been missing.
WILL PEDRO MARTINEZ RETURN TO FORM?
Despite a bit of slide entering the All Star Break, the Mets are still sitting on top of the tough NL East. Now with Pedro Martinez ready to return from a rotator cuff injury the Mets are poised to make a stand and stave off the Braves and Phillies for the NL pennant. But will Martinez return to the high caliber form that has made him the anchor of many fantasy squads throughout his 15-year career in the big leagues? After winning his first five starts last season, injuries slowed Martinez and he went just 4-8 over the remainder of the season. He posted the highest ERA of his career (4.48) and won just nine games. Still, he yielded less than a hit an inning and fanned 137 batters in 132 2/3 innings, so he obviously has some stuff left. Martinez has always been one of baseballs fiercest competitors, and the Mets need him too much for him to pitch just average. Expect him to come out of the box throwing high heat, and while the numbers might not resemble his Cy Young years, a 3.50 ERA and more than a strikeout an inning is still a reasonable benchmark for the future Hall of Famer. He's the type of late-season impact player that could put a needy fantasy squad over the top.
CAN ALBERT PUJOLS REGAIN HIS FORM?
During his first six years in the big leagues Albert Pujols was, perhaps, the most reliable players in all of baseball. In his last three seasons he batted .331, .330 and .331 while belting 46, 41 and 49 homers respectively. Talk about consistency. With just over half of the 2007 season in the books, however, he has suffered from an uncharacteristic power slump. In 310 plate appearances Pujols has recorded just 16 home runs, 52 RBI and 50 runs which, projected throughout a full season, would be the lowest totals of his career. Savvy owners should try and pick up Pujols cheap. The Cardinals resume league play with nine games on the road in ballparks where Pujols has not traditionally shown much power. If he opens up the second half slow, as UPDATE! predicts, then disgruntled owners may be looking to shop him for someone with a little more pop. Don't count him out. Pujols won't stay asleep at the plate for long, especially with his team seven games out and looking to make a playoff run.
WILL THE MARLINS SELL — AGAIN?
The Marlins have traditionally followed an anti-Steinbrenner approach to baseball. Annually fielding the League's lowest payroll, they have tried to win with a young nucleus of players, trading away free agents to be and making the most out of young prospects. The approach paid off big time in 1997 and 2003. The Marlins won the World Series both years and then proceeded to blow up the core of the team. Marquee players such as Moises Alou, Josh Becket, Kevin Brown, Mike Lowell, Paul LoDuca, Edgar Renteria and Gary Sheffield were all traded away or let go as the Marlins cut payroll and reformed their team each time. So will the Marlins be shopping their wares around this season, too? All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera and the charismatic high-kicking Dontrelle Williss are the most likely to be shopped, if only to appraise there value. Both of these name brand players have one year left on their contract, and it would be a surprise if the Marlins pulled out the checkbook to re-sign both. Catcher Miguel Olivo and budding prospect Mike Jacobs could also command some interest on the trade market. In terms of fantasy value, a change of scenery always affects a player's performance. Whether it is a chance to start over, a hitter-friendly ballpark or playing for a contender, traded players look to make the most out of their situation, especially coming from a team like the non-contending Marlins.
WHAT PROSPECT COULD MAKE A SPLASH?
Perhaps one of the best prospects in all of baseball, Diamondbacks prodigy Justin Upton has all the trappings of a star player in the making. In 52 games with Arizona's Double-A affiliate, the Mobile Bay Bears, Upton has wowed scouts and team officials alike. His current line reads: .302, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 34 R. Pretty impressive considering he's just 20. Upton, a centerfielder, was given a record $6.1 million signing bonus by Diamondbacks brass, so even they saw his potential from the get go. If Arizona is not in contention by September (and they won't be) expect Upton to make an appearance on the big league roster. And if injuries or poor play has limited production out of your outfield slot, then feel free to plug Upton right in.
Lamberti is UPDATE! Editor in Chief.
PHOTO BY JOHN RIVERA / Icon SMI
Can Cards slugger Albert Pujols regain his fantasy form in the second half?