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POSTED 2-12-07

These big leaguers are in the walk years of their contract and could be due for breakout seasons.

CASEY BLAKE
Indians rightfielder / first base
2006 Stats: .282 BA, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 63 R
Comment: The addition of David Dellucci means Blake could be out in right. That's OK. Blake is a utility player with enough pop in his bat to warrant everyday play. Cleveland picked up its $3.75 million club option on his two-year deal. He can cash in for more with a breakout year. Fantasy owners would be wise to snag him late since he'll likely qualify in the outfield, first base and at third base.

LUIS CASTILLO
Twins second baseman
2006 Stats: .296 BA, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 84 R, 25 SB
Comment: Castillo's game is based on speed, and fantasy owners might consider him as an option in his walk year. Update! wouldn't be surprised with a 180-hit, 30-steal season. Castillo, 31, earned a $5.75 million vesting option and he'll be out to earn more.

JERMAINE DYE
White Sox rightfielder
2006 Stats: .315 BA, 44 HR, 120 RBI, 103 R
Comment: Dye, who will be 33 on opening day, was the MVP of the 2005 World Series and continued his torrid play into 2006. The Sox exercised their $6.75 million club option to extend his two-year deal. That's smart money because Dye will command a major pay hike after the 2007 season.

PEDRO FELIZ
Giants third baseman
2006 Stats: .244 BA, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 75 R
Comment: The Giants resigned him in December to a one-year, $5.1 million deal after his two-year contract expired. No doubt Feliz, 31, would like to earn some security with a multi-year deal. He needs to do better than his .252 career batting average.

TORII HUNTER
Twins centerfielder
2006 Stats: .278 BA, 31 HR, 98 RBI, 86 R, 12 SB
Comment: Hunter is not a patient hitter, and yet he's emerged as an offensive force. Just in time to cash in big. Minnesota exercised his $12 million club option on a four-year deal. He's a six-time Gold Glove outfielder whose offensive skills are finally catching up.

TADAHITO IGUCHI
White Sox second baseman
2006 Stats: .281 BA, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 97 R, 11 SB
Comment: This Japanese import is everything that highly-touted second baseman Kaz Matsui isn't. Chicago exercised its $3.25 million club option to extend Iguchi's two-year deal. He's no superstar, but Iguchi is a solid option at second base.

ANDREW JONES
Braves centerfielder
2006 Stats: .262 BA, 41 HR, 129 RBI, 107 R
Comment: This perennial star is just 29 and at the end of a six-year, $75 million contract. Jones has turned up the slugging percentage while slowing down on the basepaths. He's no longer a five-category player, but remains a fantasy stud.

JASON KENDALL
Athletics catcher
2006 Stats: .295 BA, 1 HR, 50 RBI, 76 R, 11 SB
Comment: Kendall's slugging percentage has eroded after 11 big-league seasons, but his fantasy value has not. He's a bankable catcher and may become even more so. That’s because he's in the final year of a six-year, $60 million deal.

PAUL LO DUCA
Mets catcher
2006 Stats: .318 BA, 5 HR, 49 RBI, 80 R
Comment: Lo Duca plays a physical position yet refuses to miss time despite the regular assortments of bumps and bruises. He also picked up his offensive numbers playing in the Mets' loaded lineup. Lo Duca is at the end of a three-year, $18 million deal. The end could come in the World Series.

MIKE LOWELL
Red Sox third baseman
2006 Stats: .284 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 79 R
Comment: Lowell, who turns 33 in February, proved he was far from washed up with a strong year in Boston after struggling mightily with Florida in 2005. He upped his slugging percentage 115 points to .475. He's at the tail end of a four-year, $32 million deal, so don't be surprised if Lowell continues to rebound.

CARLOS GUILLEN
Tigers shortstop
2006 Stats: .320 BA, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 100 R, 20 SB
Comment: Guillen was a fantasy stud in 2006, a much cheaper alternative to Alex Rodriguez. If he merely repeats the success he enjoyed in 2004 and '06, then Guillen should be considered among the game's best offensive shortstops. Guillen is coming off a three-year, $14 million deal.

JORGE POSADA
Yankees catcher
2006 Stats: .277 BA, 23 HR, 93 RBI, 65 R
Comment: He's no spring chicken at 35, but Posada has been as consistent as any catcher in baseball this century. The Yankees picked up the $12 million club option on his five-year deal. He'll be playing for one more big payday, and with a healthy lineup of bombers around him, should put up impressive numbers.

ICHIRO SUZUKI
Mariners centerfielder
2006 Stats: .322 BA, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 110 R, 45 SB
Comment: Ichiro, 33, is at the end of a four-year, $44 million deal. If you've got Ichiro, then you're sure to score a lot of runs and all but lock up stolen bases in your league. He is a machine. Just expect consistency.

MIKE SWEENEY
Royals designated hitter
2006 Stats: .258 BA, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 23 R
Comment: Sweeney, 33, should rebound in a big way after missing 88 games with a bulging disk in his back. His five-year, $55 million is nearly history. The Royals have reportedly shopped Sweeney. His value could skyrocket with another team.

VERNON WELLS
Blue Jays centerfielder
2006 Stats: .303 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 91 R, 17 SB
Comment: Did Wells, 28, peak a year early or is he just scratching the surface? He's at the end of a five-year, $14.7 million deal. Wells doubled his previous career-best in stolen bases and raised his batting average 34 points to emerge as a five-category stud. Expect more of the same in his walk year.



POSTED 2-12-07

These big leaguers are in the walk years of their contract and could be due for breakout seasons.

BARTOLO COLON
Angels starter
2006 Stats: 1-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 31 SO, 56.1 IP
Comment: August rotator cuff surgery means Colon won't be ready for opening day. He won't begin throwing until January, so don't bother drafting the guy unless you can afford to stash him on injured reserve. He's at the end of a four-year, $51 million contract, so expect him to pitch with urgency in say, August. He may be a great late-season pick-up.

FREDDY GARCIA
Phillies starter
2006 Stats: 17-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 135 SO, 216.1 IP
Comment: Garcia helped bring home World Series title for the Chicago White Six after signing a three-year, $27 million deal. Garcia was traded to Philadelphia in December. Can he keep the form that saw him go 31-17 over the last two seasons?

LIVAN HERNANDEZ
Diamondbacks starter
2006 Stats: 13-13, 4.83 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 128 SO, 216 IP
Comment: This durable Cuban has averaged 230 innings over the last nine seasons. Last season wasn't great, but his WHIP dropped significantly after a deadline trade from Washington to Arizona. Hernandez, who turns 32 before the season, has one year left on his $21 million, three-year deal. Cause for concern: His arm has a lot of mileage.

JASON JENNINGS
Astros starter
2006 Stats: 9-13, 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 142 SO, 212 IP
Comment: Jennings, 28, might have been a 15-game winner elsewhere. But with Colorado, he had the second-lowest run support in the National League in 2006. The Rockies exercised their $5.5 million club option on his two-year deal — then traded Jennings, a Texas native, to Houston. No doubt the Astros will try to lock him up long-term before the season is through.

ERIC MILTON
Reds starter
2006 Stats: 8-8, 5.19 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 90 SO, 152.2 IP
Comment: Milton, 31, is in the final season of a three-year, $25.5 million deal. He's posted two straight forgettable seasons in Cincinnati after positive stops in Philadelphia and Minnesota. He's at a crossroads in his career. Milton needs a big year in 2007.

MARIANO RIVERA
Yankees closer
2006 Stats: 5-5, 34 SV, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 55 SO, 75 IP
Comment: Even at 36, Rivera is still the best in the business. His save total dipped a bit in 2006, but his outstanding ERA and WHIP helped many an owner win in five-by-five leagues. The Yankees took his $10.5 million club option. That's a bargain considering the demand for relief pitching.

JAVIER VAZQUEZ
White Sox starter
2006 Stats: 11-12, 4.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 184 SO, 202.2 IP
Comment: Vazquez — pitching for his fourth team in five seasons — has the goods, but no heart. That matters little fantasy owners. Vazquez is at the end of a four-year, $45 million deal. Time to earn a new contract.

JAKE WESTBROOK
Indians starter
2006 Stats: 15-10, 4.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 109 SO, 211.1 IP
Comment: Westbrook, 29, has gone a combined 44-34 over the last three seasons and is an excellent ground-ball pitcher. Cleveland naturally exercised its $6.1 million club option on his two-year deal. Westbrook is a young gun that's ready to cash in big-time.

KERRY WOOD
Cubs reliever
2006 Stats: 1-2, 4.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 13 SO, 19.2 IP
Comment: Injuries have derailed the career of this once-promising fireballer. But Chicago offered Wood a one-year, $1.75 million deal and new manager Lou Piniella expects to groom Wood for the closer role. Less stress on his surgically repaired shoulder means Wood could find new life.

JARET WRIGHT
Orioles starter
2006 Stats: 11-7, 4.49 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 84 SO, 140.1 IP
Comment: Wright, who signed a three-year, $21 million deal with the Yankees, never delivered in the Bronx. He was traded to the O's in November with the Yanks paying $4 million of his salary. He just turned 31 and is only two years removed from a 15-8, 159-strikeout season with Atlanta.


POSTED 2-12-07

These fantasy studs cashed in on monster 2006 seasons and could be in for a letdown. You'll notice the Cubs connection — that's never a good sign.

CARLOS LEE
Astros leftfielder
2006 Stats: .300 BA, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 102 R, 19 SB
Comment: Lee landed with the Rangers after a mid-season trade from the Brewers and still produced career numbers. He has emerged as star after four straight 30-homer seasons with three different clubs. He appears bust-proof and has produced in both leagues. But something about the big payday causes players to force things. He signed a six-year, $100 million deal with Houston in November. Don't overprice him in your draft.

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA
Red Sox starter
2006 Stats: 17-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 200 SO, 186.1 IP
Comment: Boston paid $51.1 million just for his rights from Japan's Seibu Lions. The righthander has yet to sign with the Sox after posting career bests in wins, ERA and WHIP. He went 3-0 and beat Cuba in the finale of the World Baseball Classic, so that's one measure of whether he can do it in Boston. The big question: will the gyroball work in the AL? Roll the dice if you’ve got a pair. Hideki Irabu anyone?

GARY MATTHEWS JR.
Angels centerfielder
2006 Stats: .313 BA, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 102 R
Comment: The well-traveled Matthews Jr. became an everyday player for the first time in his eight-year career and responded with bests across the board. He left Texas to sign a five-year, $50 million deal with Anaheim in November. Matthews, 31, owns a .263 career average. He was solid third outfielder in most fantasy leagues last season. Don't expect anything more this time around. He's a late-round pick at best.

GIL MECHE
Royals starter
2006 Stats: 11-8, 4.48 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 156 SO, 186.2 IP
Comment: The demand for arms means guys like Meche get superstar pay. He signed a five-year, $55 million deal with Kansas City after six pedestrian seasons in Seattle. The right-handed Meche had career highs in innings and strikeouts, but don't expect much from him with the woeful Royals. Save the pick and use a flyer on him if he starts off hot.

VICENTE PADILLA
Rangers starter
2006 Stats: 15-10, 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 156 SO, 200 IP
Comment: The Rangers resigned the righthander for three years, $33.75 million in December. Padilla posted career-bests in wins and strikeouts in his first year in the AL. He's done it before in Philadelphia, so Padilla is hardly a one-year wonder. But he's no budding superstar either.

ARAMIS RAMIREZ
Cubs third baseman
2006 Stats: .291 BA, 38 HR, 119 RBI, 93 R
Comment: Ramirez belted 30 homers for the third time in his career, but set personal bests for homers and RBI in '06. He resigned with the Cubs for five years and $73 million in November. Ramirez is just 28 and have already proven himself at cozy Wrigley Field. Add to that a healthy Derrek Lee to protect him and Ramirez seems like a safe bet to equal those gaudy 2006 numbers.

ALFONSO SORIANO
Cubs leftfielder
2006 Stats: .277 BA, 46 HR, 95 RBI, 119 R, 41 SB
Comment: I know, I know — if Soriano could do that for the woeful Washington Nationals, imagine what he'll do at Wrigley. Soriano is a true fantasy stud, blasting 46, 36, 28, 38, and 39 homers over his last five seasons. And he emerged as the king of all five-by-five leagues in '06 by swiping 41 bases. Soriano signed with the Chicago Cubs for eight years and $136 million in October. Buyer beware — this is his fourth team in five years.










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