DRAFT ANALYSIS
2. Derek Jeter, Yankees shortstop: Sparked by another postseason meltdown, I think Jeter is due to his .343 again and to make a solid MVP bid. With all the sure-fire superstars already taken, Jeter is a solid acquisition at the bottom of the second round.
3. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals starter: Who are these owners and why did they leave the NL Cy Young winner dangling until the third round? He showed weakness in the playoffs, but Tony LaRussa will have him ready to deliver this season. He'll make another bid at the league's highest pitching honor.
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees closer: I had my eyes on Bobby Abreu here, but Rivera, the "Hammer of God" is really too good to pass up. I'll be honest, I nearly took Ichiro here too, but I think there will be more outfield help available in the later rounds.
5. Billy Wagner, Mets closer: With a lot of the stud starters taken, the NL's answer to Rivera looked like a solid pick. It's great to have solidified my relief core so early on.
6. Adam Dunn, Reds outfielder: Now it's time to pick up some thunder. Dunn is coming off a career year, and with 19 games a year against Pittsburgh, and some protection in the lineup, I think he could push the envelope and be a 40-100 guy easily. He also is eligible at two positions. Very key.
7. Jermaine Dye, White Sox outfielder: How this guy is still around I cannot fathom! In my head, he was a more viable MVP candidate than Justin Morneau.
8. Rafeal Furcal, Dodgers shortstop: Again, too good to pass up. A .300 hitter with world-class speed is a solid utility pick, with shortstop already filled by Jeter.
9. Felipe Lopez, Nationals shortstop: With two utility spots in this league, it was a no-brainer to take Lopez, the Nats speedy leadoff man. He'll provide plenty of hits and steals in what I predict to be a breakout year for him.
10. Chad Cordero, Nationals closer: Cordero has had flashes of greatness. And because I think Curt Schilling is going to be a flop this year, Cordero is a solid choice at this point in the draft. The only issue is how many leads the Nats are going to be handing him.
11. Takashi Saito, Dodgers closer: Although his age is a factor (37, we are told) I think L.A. is going to have a lot of late game leads in a close NL West, and Saito at times appears to be unhittable. I hope he stays healthy.
12. Josh Beckett, Red Sox starter: This was a mistake. I forgot how much I despise this guy after the draft concluded. He gives up way too many homers, a trend which will continue as Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay all keep acquiring stronger hitters. I've made efforts to drop Beckett for Kei Igawa of the Yankees, who has a shot at being something special in the back of the Yanks rotation.
13. J.D. Drew, Red Sox outfielder: Drew should get plenty of good pitches to hit while batting in front of David Ortiz.
14. Scott Rolen, Cardinals third baseman: Rolen proved he's still as dangerous as ever with a strong postseason. I expect him to come up huge this year, and am surprised to see him fall to Round 14 — the same round the geriatric Moises Alou was chosen.
15. Todd Helton, Rockies first baseman: Helton's name has been swirling in trade talks, and after a sub-par year, I think he will rebound nicely in efforts to re-vitalize his overall worth. A move to an AL contender would make him less valuable most assuredly, but in round 15, his outstanding plate discipline makes him a worthwhile selection.
16. Gary Matthews, Angels outfielder: Matthews had a breakout 2006 with Texas, and I think he's only getting better. I never get enough of that over-the-wall catch!
17. Josh Barfield, Indians second baseman: With all the marquis second basemen taken, Barfield is a solid pick here. I don't need a ton of production from this spot. He had a solid season in San Diego last year, and will see Kansas City's pitching 19 times this year.
18. Russel Martin, Dodgers catcher: Another loose end. Martin was really solid in an exceptional year for rookies around the league last season, and I expect him to improve. I see him as among the top five catchers in the NL, maybe even higher if he keeps hitting.
19. Coco Crisp, Red Sox outfielder: I can see why people are wary to draft him, but Crisp now gives my team the best speed in this league, and a bunch of hits — and triples if he stays healthy.
20. Kevin Millwood, Rangers starter: The Rangers' staff ace will eat a ton of innings this year, and will always have a productive offense behind him. I think he can win 15-plus games if he stays healthy and can keep his squad close each outing.
21. Josh Johnson, Marlins starter: I think this kid has a ton of potential in what is a very underrated rotation in over in South Florida. His 12 wins and a 3.10 ERA last season are good enough for me this late in the draft.
22. Gerald Laird, Rangers catcher: Ultimate Sleeper! This kid is going to be big. Rod Barajas is gone so he has the job to himself. I really like his swing, and in a lineup where he isn't called upon to carry a big load, I think he can really blossom.
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