Players and their stats don't always add up at Spring Training. But it is the perfect time to watch prospects

Two events very similar in nature kick off this week. Tuesday marks the first reporting date for all players to Major League Baseball's Spring Training while the NFL holds its week-long combine for college players in Indianapolis, which begins Wednesday.

Everyone knows the combine is the ultimate meat market, where athletes are poked, prodded and tested in every way imaginable. What's not as obvious is that Spring Training serves the same function. It's baseball's combine.

There is a notable difference. Veterans and hopefuls alike get a stern once-over each Spring Training. This should sit well with any fantasy owner, right? That's five weeks to evaluate players and plan your draft. There's just one problem: Spring Training is not going to tell you who to draft or when.

Spring Training is designed to give the rookies the best chance to show their stuff. Yes, the veterans play too (towards the end, anyways), but it's really not a good measure of their potential.

Many factors are at play each March. A player could choose to focus on contact hitting or hone his situational hitting or even take an entirely different approach at the plate. Not all players may go all out. When was the last time Barry Bonds legged out a double in Spring Training?

Along the same lines, gauging pitchers can be equally impossible. Hurlers often use Spring Training to experiment with pitches and arm angles. They're on a short leash during outings, and veteran starters rarely throw more than 30 innings in March.

Stamina is rarely an issue each spring. Someone throwing mid-90's fastballs during Spring Training won't necessarily have the resiliency to do that on a hot June night. The reverse also is true. A player like Texas Rangers pitcher Fabio Castro could stumble through Spring Training (he posted a 8.10 ERA in 2005) and then turn the rest of the season around (2.28 ERA last year).

Stats aside, there is another major annoyance to Spring Training. Who do you watch? And how? Since it's almost impossible to see the games — unless you live or vacation in Arizona or Florida — you're stuck relying on second-hand accounts. That would normally be OK, except a wire story isn't going to tell you that while Florida Marlins outfielder Joe Borchard may have shined in one game, he has all the tools of a journeyman at best.

So what does Spring Training mean to the average fantasy GM? Don't read too much into performances. Consider these cautionary tales from the recent past:

Los Angeles Angels starter Ervin Santana headed into Opening Day a year ago the Major League leader with 29 strikeouts in 27 innings during the spring. Hmmm. The start of a trend? Santana did go 16-8, but struck out just 141 batters in 204 innings. Minnesota Twins pitcher Kyle Lohse enjoyed as many wins (5) last March as during the regular season (5).

How about Esteban German? The Kansas City Royals second baseman swiped a league-high 11 bases during Spring Training, only to finish with 7 during the season. Marlins outfielder Abraham Nunez set the franchise record with 8 homers in March 2004. He finished the season with 6 dingers and a .319 slugging percentage.

Think big picture instead. The best advice I have is this: Spring Training is your first glimpse of the future. Rookies with assured spots are going to be given every opportunity to succeed. You'll look much smarter taking a flyer on a player like this as opposed to a no-name who earns a roster spot by surprise. That guy will be back riding buses in the minors by May.




POSTED 2-19-07

If you drafted Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Jered Weaver or Ryan Zimmerman last spring, you got great value from these players based on where you selected or what price you paid for them. What unknown will become this summer's fantasy stud by season's end? Here are a few minor leaguers worth following in Spring Training. Knowledge is power late in drafts and promising players like these can make all the difference. Remember their names on draft night:

JEFF BAKER
Rockies Outfielder
2006 Stats: .305 AVG, 20 HR, 108 RBI at Triple A.
Comment: Baker could hit 20-25 homers this year if he gets 300 at-bats — and he will. Either via trade of Todd Helton or some other form of attrition, count on it happening. Baker batted .368 with 5 homers and 21 RBI at the big league level a year ago.

MICHAEL BOURN
Phillies Outfielder
2006 Stats: .277 AVG, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 45 SB, finishing at Triple A.
Comment: With Aaron Rowand rumored to be going to San Diego for Scott Linebrink, Bourn is in line to step into the centerfield job. If so, he'll be able to bat seventh in the lineup and produce 20-25 steals.

ALEX GORDON
Royals Third Basemen
2006 Stats: .325 AVG, 22 HR, 22 SB at Double-A.
Comment: Gordon's combination of power and speed should excite fantasy owners. He has the job going into Spring Training. Mark Teahan is moving to the outfield.

JOSH FIELDS
White Sox Outfielder
2006 Stats: .305 AVG, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB at Triple-A.
Comment: With Scott Podsednik already hurt and Joe Crede's chronic back problems, Fields will play somewhere this year. Follow him closely in Spring Training. Even if he doesn’t have a starting job when camp breaks keep him on your reserve roster.

PHIL HUGHES
Yankees Starting Pitcher
2006 Stats: 2.25 ERA, 168 SO, 39 BB, 146 IP, finishing at Double-A.
Comment: The Randy Johnson trade opened up a rotation spot. Hughes, 20, may be young, but at 6-5, 220 pounds, he has the size. Will he show the makeup and maturity to earn that spot?

JAMES LONEY
Dodgers First base
2006 Stats: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 20 R, 102 AB with the Dodgers.
Comment: When injury-prone Nomar Garciaparra goes down, Loney will take over for good at first base. He could also be traded somewhere and start this year right away.
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