MLB's winter meetings have come and gone, but not without some big moves and a lot of noise. Sure Johan Santana stayed put, but these meetings help set the groundwork for potential blockbusters down the road.
UPDATE! sorted through all the action and dissected the more important moves, while taking a look ahead to see what could transpire in the coming weeks:
While the Detroit Tigers made a subtle middle-relief trade with the Colorado Rockies (obtaining Denny Bautista for Jose Capellan), the real splash came when they landed third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis from the Florida Marlins. They gave up a ton of prospects (most notably, starting pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin), but the Tigers now boast the best lineup in the majors and a potential ace in Willis. Sure they still have problems in their bullpen and some concern regarding their starting rotation, but Detroit now possesses flexibility. They can ship out Brandon Inge or trade the D-Train to NL East teams shut out of negotiations with the Marlins. Only time will tell if they've made the right moves, or simply become the New York Yankees of the AL Central.
FANTASY INSIGHT: Maybin and Miller are top-notch prospects who should get serious bumps up the fantasy ladder; they will both be thrust into important roles for the Marlins. But the real winner is Miguel Cabrera, who will have protection and RBI opportunities galore. Dontrelle Willis, on the other hand, loses value in his move between divisions.
Minnesota Twins pitcher Johan Santana will get traded this off-season. It's just a matter of time. They would be foolish to risk holding him through spring training with that no-mid-season trade clause of his. The Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels have all been mentioned as possible destinations at this point. The Yanks and Red Sox have to be the favorites, simply because Santana is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause unless he's going to a perennial contender. That being said, anything can happen. So it looks like we'll all have to deal with the rumors regarding Santana for at least a couple more weeks. But if I had to guess, he'll probably be moved after the New Year.
FANTASY INSIGHT: Obviously if Santana goes to a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, his fantasy value increases as he will have a terrific shot at 20 wins to go along with the rest of his superb stats.
Baltimore Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard, Oakland Athletics pitcher Dan Haren and Toronto Blue Jays pitcher A.J. Burnett are all on the market in some capacity. The Orioles are getting interest for their ace from teams like the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane is open to trading Haren, but only for a knock-your-socks-off package. And Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi wants to ship Burnett out before he opts out of his contract at the end of this season. Bedard commands the most value, but the Orioles will take their time fielding offers. The Athletics have made no qualms about keeping Haren if the right trade doesn't come along. Haren is signed through 2010 for very cheap, so there's no rush to trade him. Burnett is the most likely of the three to be moved — mostly due to the opt-out clause in his contract. UPDATE! would be really surprised to see the A's trade Haren before the season starts, ditto for Bedard. It might be wise for Oakland and Baltimore to hold onto their aces at least until the 2008 trade deadline, when contending teams will be more apt to give up promising talent in order to win now.
FANTASY INSIGHT: All three pitchers would likely see a boost in value if moved, assuming they were traded to contenders. Haren should have the least value of the three as his second-half was atrocious in 2007. Bedard became a bona-fide fantasy super-star last season and his strikeout numbers should be out of this world in 2008. Burnett has a boatload of fantasy potential in 2008 thanks to his probable walk-year status.
After losing closer Francisco Cordero to the Cincinnati Reds, the Brewers have gone relief-pitcher crazy, acquiring rubber-armed Salomon Torres from the Pirates while signing David Riske to a multi-year contract. They also signed Eric Gagne to a one-year deal. Adding depth to the bullpen is always a smart idea, but the Brewers have gone above and beyond what's necessary. After all, they still have Derrick Turnbow, who has all the tools of aterrific closer (though he imploded in 2006). The Brewers want their bullpen to be a strength in 2008 and they have taken all possible steps to ensure that.
FANTASY INSIGHT: So who is going to close in 2008? The smart money is on Gagne. He could be a terrific fantasy option this season if he's the ninth-inning guy, but fantasy owners must remember last year's horrific showing in Beantown. If he slides in the draft, he could be a steal. But Torres, Turnbow and Riske all have experience closing, so he won't have any room for miscues.
The Nationals gave up Glen Gibson (a mid-level pitching prospect who's still at least two years away from the majors), catcher Brian Schneider (a 31-year old back-stop with a career .252 AVG) and outfielder Ryan Church (a decent reserve option, but not someone you want starting everyday) for two promising, but troubled, outfielders in Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. While Dukes and Milledge are potential headaches, their upside is sky-high, particularly for Milledge. Washington didn't really give up anything since they have a potential catcher of the future in Jesus Flores and, for a team like the Nationals, these are the types of risks you need to take in order to field a more competitive team. The Nationals also added starting pitching by trading for Yankees starter Tyler Clippard in exchange for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo. The Nationals are obviously not going to contend for an NL East title anytime soon, but in a couple of years, who knows what can happen?
FANTASY INSIGHT: For 2008, consider both Dukes and Milledge as decent sleeper options. RFK Stadium is not an ideal place for hitters, but they should be starting everyday, with Milledge having the higher value of the two. Tyler Clippard gets a slight bump in fantasy value; he has a shot of cracking the Nationals rotation, but don't waste a coveted draft pick on him.
In exchange for first baseman Chris Carter, the White Sox were able to add a talented young outfielder in Carlos Quentin. While he did have shoulder surgery in October and may not be ready by opening day, Quentin has great defensive skills and a developing offensive game. The Diamondbacks have a bevy of outfield talent so they were willing to part with Quentin, but this is a guy who can be a great player for years to come.
FANTASY INSIGHT: Quentin has value as a late-round draft pick for fantasy owners. His health is an obvious concern, but he'll be in a lineup that can score runs and should start in left-field once he's 100 percent. If he breaks out, it seems more likely to happen in 2009 than 2008, but that doesn't mean he can't be a fantasy boon.
Starbonell is UPDATE! Major League Baseball Editor.
UPDATE! sorted through all the action and dissected the more important moves, while taking a look ahead to see what could transpire in the coming weeks:
Tigers Load Up
While the Detroit Tigers made a subtle middle-relief trade with the Colorado Rockies (obtaining Denny Bautista for Jose Capellan), the real splash came when they landed third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis from the Florida Marlins. They gave up a ton of prospects (most notably, starting pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin), but the Tigers now boast the best lineup in the majors and a potential ace in Willis. Sure they still have problems in their bullpen and some concern regarding their starting rotation, but Detroit now possesses flexibility. They can ship out Brandon Inge or trade the D-Train to NL East teams shut out of negotiations with the Marlins. Only time will tell if they've made the right moves, or simply become the New York Yankees of the AL Central.
FANTASY INSIGHT: Maybin and Miller are top-notch prospects who should get serious bumps up the fantasy ladder; they will both be thrust into important roles for the Marlins. But the real winner is Miguel Cabrera, who will have protection and RBI opportunities galore. Dontrelle Willis, on the other hand, loses value in his move between divisions.
Selling Santana
Minnesota Twins pitcher Johan Santana will get traded this off-season. It's just a matter of time. They would be foolish to risk holding him through spring training with that no-mid-season trade clause of his. The Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels have all been mentioned as possible destinations at this point. The Yanks and Red Sox have to be the favorites, simply because Santana is unlikely to waive his no-trade clause unless he's going to a perennial contender. That being said, anything can happen. So it looks like we'll all have to deal with the rumors regarding Santana for at least a couple more weeks. But if I had to guess, he'll probably be moved after the New Year.
FANTASY INSIGHT: Obviously if Santana goes to a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, his fantasy value increases as he will have a terrific shot at 20 wins to go along with the rest of his superb stats.
Ace's Wild
Baltimore Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard, Oakland Athletics pitcher Dan Haren and Toronto Blue Jays pitcher A.J. Burnett are all on the market in some capacity. The Orioles are getting interest for their ace from teams like the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane is open to trading Haren, but only for a knock-your-socks-off package. And Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi wants to ship Burnett out before he opts out of his contract at the end of this season. Bedard commands the most value, but the Orioles will take their time fielding offers. The Athletics have made no qualms about keeping Haren if the right trade doesn't come along. Haren is signed through 2010 for very cheap, so there's no rush to trade him. Burnett is the most likely of the three to be moved — mostly due to the opt-out clause in his contract. UPDATE! would be really surprised to see the A's trade Haren before the season starts, ditto for Bedard. It might be wise for Oakland and Baltimore to hold onto their aces at least until the 2008 trade deadline, when contending teams will be more apt to give up promising talent in order to win now.
FANTASY INSIGHT: All three pitchers would likely see a boost in value if moved, assuming they were traded to contenders. Haren should have the least value of the three as his second-half was atrocious in 2007. Bedard became a bona-fide fantasy super-star last season and his strikeout numbers should be out of this world in 2008. Burnett has a boatload of fantasy potential in 2008 thanks to his probable walk-year status.
Bucking Trends
After losing closer Francisco Cordero to the Cincinnati Reds, the Brewers have gone relief-pitcher crazy, acquiring rubber-armed Salomon Torres from the Pirates while signing David Riske to a multi-year contract. They also signed Eric Gagne to a one-year deal. Adding depth to the bullpen is always a smart idea, but the Brewers have gone above and beyond what's necessary. After all, they still have Derrick Turnbow, who has all the tools of aterrific closer (though he imploded in 2006). The Brewers want their bullpen to be a strength in 2008 and they have taken all possible steps to ensure that.
FANTASY INSIGHT: So who is going to close in 2008? The smart money is on Gagne. He could be a terrific fantasy option this season if he's the ninth-inning guy, but fantasy owners must remember last year's horrific showing in Beantown. If he slides in the draft, he could be a steal. But Torres, Turnbow and Riske all have experience closing, so he won't have any room for miscues.
A National Affair
The Nationals gave up Glen Gibson (a mid-level pitching prospect who's still at least two years away from the majors), catcher Brian Schneider (a 31-year old back-stop with a career .252 AVG) and outfielder Ryan Church (a decent reserve option, but not someone you want starting everyday) for two promising, but troubled, outfielders in Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. While Dukes and Milledge are potential headaches, their upside is sky-high, particularly for Milledge. Washington didn't really give up anything since they have a potential catcher of the future in Jesus Flores and, for a team like the Nationals, these are the types of risks you need to take in order to field a more competitive team. The Nationals also added starting pitching by trading for Yankees starter Tyler Clippard in exchange for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo. The Nationals are obviously not going to contend for an NL East title anytime soon, but in a couple of years, who knows what can happen?
FANTASY INSIGHT: For 2008, consider both Dukes and Milledge as decent sleeper options. RFK Stadium is not an ideal place for hitters, but they should be starting everyday, with Milledge having the higher value of the two. Tyler Clippard gets a slight bump in fantasy value; he has a shot of cracking the Nationals rotation, but don't waste a coveted draft pick on him.
Swap Meet
In exchange for first baseman Chris Carter, the White Sox were able to add a talented young outfielder in Carlos Quentin. While he did have shoulder surgery in October and may not be ready by opening day, Quentin has great defensive skills and a developing offensive game. The Diamondbacks have a bevy of outfield talent so they were willing to part with Quentin, but this is a guy who can be a great player for years to come.
FANTASY INSIGHT: Quentin has value as a late-round draft pick for fantasy owners. His health is an obvious concern, but he'll be in a lineup that can score runs and should start in left-field once he's 100 percent. If he breaks out, it seems more likely to happen in 2009 than 2008, but that doesn't mean he can't be a fantasy boon.
Starbonell is UPDATE! Major League Baseball Editor.
