Rookies should never be counted on to provide a heavy dose of points in any fantasy league. But that doesn't mean they can't have an impact. As we near the All Star break, UPDATE! examined the cream of the rookie class to determine who would break out in the second half and who would flatline. Don't get caught sleeping on these guys. They could win, or lose, you your fantasy league:
Comment: Yes, I know, another ode to Kevin Durant. Bear with me, please. Durant is undoubtedly the 2007-08 rookie of the year and has become the focal point of the Sonics offense this season after being drafted No. 2 in this years draft. Durant has been phenomenal, averaging nearly 20 points per game with a steal and a block as well. His FG% isn't pretty and he turns the ball over way too much, but in time his shot selection will improve and he'll become a better passer. Two months into his career and he's already showing All Star promise, but until he gains some muscle he'll continue to take some pounding in the paint. His second-half numbers should mirror his first half; he won't really break out until next season.
Comment: Green has shown flashes of brilliance this season. He's also shown indecision and helplessness out on the court. But of this year's rookie crop, Green is most likely to show improvement during the second half of the season. For one thing he's getting the playing time (22 minutes per game in Dec.) and the Sonics are improving (5-5 in Dec. after a 3-13 Nov.). As he grows more comfortable with the NBA pace, he'll settle down and produce more consistently.
Comment: The former Gator is now a Hawk, but one thing remains the same; he's still an animal. Horford isn't playing like a rookie and has proven he can hang with the best rebounders in the league. He's almost averaging a double-double (nine points, 10 rebounds) with a block and a steal to boot. He'll develop quickly into one of the best forwards in the league and his game should only improve as the Hawks realize they have a shot at the playoffs. He might be the most consistent rookie of the bunch, but — like Durant — owners will likely see similar numbers in the second half.
Comment: Yi can't be relied on as a regular fantasy contributor and should be approached with trepidation in the second half. As predicted, Yi looks uncomfortable in the NBA, proving himself to be more hype and less talent. Scouts say he has a sky-high ceiling, but he's done little to show us he's a prime time player. You would have to believe that the Bucks would be better off giving Charlie Villanueva more minutes, but with the marketing madness the Chinese import creates it's unlikely. Still, until he plays up to his "potential", Yi should stay rotting on the free agent list where he belongs.
Comment: Moon has had some great games, but has not found consistency in his play. In the Raptors ever evolving rotation, it's a nightly mystery as to who's getting minutes and who's being benched. And with Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh returning, he'll likely find his playing time cut. He should be looked at carefully, but unless you're desperate, leave him on the free agent list. He's a great success story, but let's leave it at that.
Comment: Season ending knee surgery? "He's so far ahead of what we expected it's not even funny," Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard said by phone Thursday. "Having said that, he will not. Come. Back. This. Year." He won't be back this season, that's for sure, but this speaks volumes of the NBA's next great big man. He's gained 30 pounds of sheer muscle while rehabbing and will absolutely be a big star for the Blazer next year. After all, there's no such thing as too much preparation.
KEVIN DURANT
Seattle SuperSonics, G/F Comment: Yes, I know, another ode to Kevin Durant. Bear with me, please. Durant is undoubtedly the 2007-08 rookie of the year and has become the focal point of the Sonics offense this season after being drafted No. 2 in this years draft. Durant has been phenomenal, averaging nearly 20 points per game with a steal and a block as well. His FG% isn't pretty and he turns the ball over way too much, but in time his shot selection will improve and he'll become a better passer. Two months into his career and he's already showing All Star promise, but until he gains some muscle he'll continue to take some pounding in the paint. His second-half numbers should mirror his first half; he won't really break out until next season.
JEFF GREEN
Seattle SuperSonics, F Comment: Green has shown flashes of brilliance this season. He's also shown indecision and helplessness out on the court. But of this year's rookie crop, Green is most likely to show improvement during the second half of the season. For one thing he's getting the playing time (22 minutes per game in Dec.) and the Sonics are improving (5-5 in Dec. after a 3-13 Nov.). As he grows more comfortable with the NBA pace, he'll settle down and produce more consistently.
AL HORFORD
Atlanta Hawks, F/C Comment: The former Gator is now a Hawk, but one thing remains the same; he's still an animal. Horford isn't playing like a rookie and has proven he can hang with the best rebounders in the league. He's almost averaging a double-double (nine points, 10 rebounds) with a block and a steal to boot. He'll develop quickly into one of the best forwards in the league and his game should only improve as the Hawks realize they have a shot at the playoffs. He might be the most consistent rookie of the bunch, but — like Durant — owners will likely see similar numbers in the second half.
YI JIANLIAN
Milwaukee Bucks, PF Comment: Yi can't be relied on as a regular fantasy contributor and should be approached with trepidation in the second half. As predicted, Yi looks uncomfortable in the NBA, proving himself to be more hype and less talent. Scouts say he has a sky-high ceiling, but he's done little to show us he's a prime time player. You would have to believe that the Bucks would be better off giving Charlie Villanueva more minutes, but with the marketing madness the Chinese import creates it's unlikely. Still, until he plays up to his "potential", Yi should stay rotting on the free agent list where he belongs.
JAMARIO MOON
Toronto Raptors, SF Comment: Moon has had some great games, but has not found consistency in his play. In the Raptors ever evolving rotation, it's a nightly mystery as to who's getting minutes and who's being benched. And with Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh returning, he'll likely find his playing time cut. He should be looked at carefully, but unless you're desperate, leave him on the free agent list. He's a great success story, but let's leave it at that.
BONUS
GREG ODEN UPDATE
Portland Trail Blazers, C Comment: Season ending knee surgery? "He's so far ahead of what we expected it's not even funny," Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard said by phone Thursday. "Having said that, he will not. Come. Back. This. Year." He won't be back this season, that's for sure, but this speaks volumes of the NBA's next great big man. He's gained 30 pounds of sheer muscle while rehabbing and will absolutely be a big star for the Blazer next year. After all, there's no such thing as too much preparation.
