POSTED 10-15-07

Small forward may not be the most star-studded position in the NBA but there is certainly a potential goldmine of fantasy talent to be tapped — if you know where to look. It's fitting that the small forward position is often referred to as the 'three' cause they are often the glue that holds their teams together and can fill out the core of a successful fantasy squad. Without further ado, UPDATE! presents its Top 20 small forwards:

HOT 20

1. LEBRON JAMES
Cleveland Cavaliers
Comment: We have all been witness to the amazing impact James has made on the league in his first three years and, still, no one has more upside. He is coming off a year in which he averaged 27.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game along with over 1.6 steals, 1.3 threes, and .7 blocks a game. These are freaky stats and the freakiest thing is he will probably only get continue to get better this year. No one in the league can provide comparable stats in every important fantasy category while having the cajones to wear a Yankees hat in Cleveland. He's a hands down No. 1 pick.

2. SHAWN MARION
Phoenix Suns
Comment: Marion has consistently been a solid across the board for a number of years now and there's no reason to expect slippage any time soon. Marion is in the perfect situation in the potent fast breaking Phoenix offense, and the rumors and trade demands we heard earlier in the summer seem to have died down which should result in the usual fantasy explosion in the valley of the sun. Amare Stoudemire's well-known knee problems could also pop up again; any time on the shelf for Amare would only lead to more opportunities and stats for #31.

3. JOSH SMITH
Atlanta Hawks
Comment: Smith doesn't get the mainstream attention that he deserves thanks to being stuck in the abyss of a pathetic Hawks team. But he is definitely worthy of significant fantasy attention. Smith will provide solid stats with around 16-18 points and close to double digit boards every night but his main value comes from the "hustle stats". No other small forward can come close to his combination of 2.9 blocks and 1.4 steals a game from last year. The guy blocked 207 shots last year with the next closest small forward (Andrei Kirilenko) at 144. He's gotten better statistically in each of his three NBA seasons and is a lock to get at least 2.5 blocks a game this season.

4. GERALD WALLACE
Charlotte Bobcats
Comment: Much like Josh Smith, Wallace doesn't get the hype he deserves playing in the small market Charlotte. Wallace might be the most underrated player in the league and will surely continue to pack the box scores this season with at least a block, two steals and a steady stream of three-pointers. Being teamed up with Jason Richardson and a healthy Emeka Okafor should lead to a breakout season for both Wallace and the Bobcats. The only downside that is that his breakneck style of play often makes him an injury risk. He won't play all 82 games but the ones he does will produce big time numbers.

5. PAUL PIERCE
Boston Celtics
Comment: The prevailing opinion seems to be that the addition of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to the Celtics will result in falling fantasy value for Pierce, but this couldn't be further from the truth. Sure, his points will likely fall off but an average of 20-22 can still be expected with increases in FG%, and assists. For the first time in years defenses will not be able to simply attempt to lock down Pierce and this new found freedom should result in continuing fantasy success for all his owners.

6. CARMELO ANTHONY
Denver Nuggets
Comment: Anthony and Allen Iverson are a fantasy match made in heaven. Both should flourish in their first full season together and 'Melo should once again average close to 30 points a game while providing solid statistical production across the board. He'll also help out in free throw percentage, which is all too often overlooked by many team owners. Anthony is one of the few forwards who gets to the line consistently enough to make a significant positive impact on the category. He has improved in each of his seasons in the league and after a dominating run with Team USA in the off-season seems to be in the best shape of his career, which should lead to a top tier fantasy season.

7. RASHARD LEWIS
Orlando Magic
Comment: Lewis put up spectacular numbers while stuck in the Pacific Northwest playing for the lackluster Sonics. A fresh start and huge contract in Orlando should lead to more exposure and the usual top-flight stats. For the first time in his career Lewis will have a dominant big man in Dwight Howard to play off and should continue to pile up over 20 points, 2.5 threes and solid percentages. Coming off a career year last season with the Sonics there will probably be some falloff after securing his gigantic $118 million dollar free agent deal, but that is not the most worrisome thing about Lewis. Based on stats alone he is probably a Top 5 small forward, but he is a big time injury risk. He hasn’t played 82 games since 1999 and he won’t break that streak this year. He has big time upside but understand the injury risk looms.

8. CARON BUTLER
Washington Wizards
Comment: Butler was on his way to a breakout season last year averaging 19.1 points, 7.4 boards, 3.7 assists, and 2.1 steals while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 86.3 percent from the line through 63 games. Teamed up with Gilbert Arenas and Antwain Jamison in the national capital, these stats should continue upwards in a healthy full season. While not the flashiest or eye popping when taken as a whole, his solid combination of stats across the board are hard to come by, and it's very possible you could steal Butler in the 3rd round while other players sleep on him.

9. ANDRE IGUOLADA
Philadelphia 76ers
Comment: A lot of so called fantasy "experts" seem to be extremely high on Iguolada heading in to the season but don't buy into the hype. 18 points, five boards and five assists are nothing to sneeze at but don't go too crazy and take him early. He's a nice fantasy option but he's got a lot more to prove before he breaks into the true elite.
10. JOSH HOWARD
Dallas Mavericks
Comment: Howard is coming off a breakout All Star season, but that will seem insignificant in comparison to the numbers he puts up this year. There really is no weakness in his game as he contributes favorably in every fantasy category. One of the few players with the potential to provide a steal and a block a game while also shooting excellent percentages, averaging around 20 points and 8 boards a game. Even these predictions may be on the low side for Howard, whose amazing athleticism has yet to be fully tapped. This will probably be the last season you'll be able to grab Howard outside of the first round.

11. LUOL DENG
Chicago Bulls
Comment: Deng is the exactly the kind of player you want to have on your fantasy team. He contributes in every category and has shown vast improvement in each of his first three seasons in the league. His scoring average has increased from 11.7 to 14.3 to 18.8 ppg last season while shooting over 50 percent from the field and adding in 7.1 rebounds a game. There is no reason why those numbers shouldn't continue to increase as Deng and is constantly thriving to improve. Any time around the fourth or fifth round Deng will be a huge value.

12. RON ARTEST
Sacramento Kings
Comment: Artest is hard to predict as a NBA player in reality or in fantasy mainly because he seems to spend most of his time in an unknown zone between the two. Of course when he is healthy (physically and mentally) he will provide great steals, boards and respectable point totals, but who knows what he will do or when he will ask to be traded next. If he had his head on straight he'd easily be ranked higher but by now everyone from Detroit to Tokyo knows he is a big question mark. Artest is the epitome of a risk/reward guy. If you feel like his injury/attitude concerns are worth the risk he could be a huge payoff during the middle rounds of your draft but you are playing with fire. Most times you are going to get burned.

13. KEVIN DURANT
Seattle Supersonics
Comment: With Greg Oden out for the year with a knee injury Durant now has no competition to be the rookie de' jour this season. His upside is amazing and Durant will probably have a nice rookie season. He'll surely get the playing time to prove why he is the future of the Sonics organization; just don't get too caught up in the hype. There is no way he can live up to the expectations heaped upon his scrawny shoulders this early in his career. He will be a nice fantasy option at either SG or SF but he is not an early round lock. I've seen Durant go as high as the second round and that is absurd. If he falls into the middle rounds of the draft and you haven't be able to land any of the above 12 then take a flyer — just don't expect the second coming of Jordan on week one.

14. ANDRE KIRILENKO
Utah Jazz
Comment: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The one time first/second round pick and man-crush of most all fantasy basketball players had a horrific season. However he is not as bad as last season's stats have led him to fall in the eyes of many, and he could be a steal in the later rounds of your draft. AK-47 still put up respectable numbers last season, but the fact is he just does not fit well in Utah's system alongside Okur, Boozer, Williams and the rest of the Jazz. The sensitive Russian has asked to be traded, which would be a great boost for Kirilenko's fantasy value. In a more spread out offensive scheme we could see the fantasy powerhouse of old.

15. MIKE MILLER
Memphis Grizzlies
Comment: A great source of threes but outside of that you pretty much know what you are going to get with Miller: around 15 points, five rebounds, three assists, and nice percentages. He won't win you any leagues but he is a nice glue guy to have on your squad. Playing with Team USA this past summer in the Olympic qualifying tournament seemed to energize Miller and having a healthy Pau Gasol back in Memphis shouldn't hurt him too much.

16. COREY MAGGETTE
Los Angeles Clippers
Comment: He's been a bit of a disappointment these last few seasons but this could be a big year for Maggette. He'll have no choice but to up his productivity in the scoring and rebounding areas with Elton Brand out for most of the year with a devastating hamstring injury. The Clippers are coming off a very disappointing season and if that's not enough of an incentive Maggette is also playing for a new contract. Injuries are always a problem though so tread carefully when thinking about where to take the oft-maligned Clipper. If he's floating around in the seventh or eighth round of a 10 team draft then you could have a big time addition for a small time price.

17. RUDY GAY
Memphis Grizzlies
Comment: Rudy had a nice rookie season while not receving that much playing time for the Grizzlies. The potential to average one steal, block and three-pointer a game is a rare find in the league and one that cannot be passed up. Given the increased burn that Gay is expected to earn this season there is a chance that he could develop into a Shawn Marion-type across the board producer.

18. DANNY GRANGER
Indiana Pacers
Comment: Like Rudy Gay, Granger has the ability to join the elite one block, one steal, one trey group. The potential is there and this is the year that Granger will finally gets the minutes to live up to the expectations placed upon him. There won't be much else positive in Indiana this season, but Granger should be a solid contributor across the board.

19. STEPHEN JACKSON
Golden State Warriors
Comment: Once he got traded to Golden State last year Jackson excelled while averaging 16.8 points, 4.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.6 3-pointers a game. He seems like a perfect fit in the wide open system employed by Don Nelson, and if he stays on the court then those numbers may even increase with a full season by the bay. However as the fiasco in Detroit and recent headlines proved, Jackson is no stranger to controversy.

20. TAYSHAUN PRINCE
Detroit Pistons
Comment: Prince is a great fit in the Detroit system and on any fantasy team. He won't win you a title alone but he is the type of guy that you want to have. He'll get 3s, points, blocks, and steals with low turnovers while always being healthy. Tayshaun hasn't missed a game since 2002 and you shouldn't miss the chance to add him to your squad.

Brian McCue is UPDATE! National Basketball Assocation contributing Editor.




UPDATE! SLEEPERS

1. GRANT HILL
Pheonix Suns
Comment: We all know Mr. Hill has been extremely unlucky in the injury department the last few years, but he may have found the perfect situation in Phoenix. He won't be relied upon nearly as much as his last few years in Orlando. And he always seemed to hit the disabled list near the end of the season after logging heavy minutes. A role off the bench in the offensive juggernaut that is Phoenix should turn out as well as pretty much anyone who plays in their fast paced system.

2. RYAN GOMES
Minnesota Timberwolves
Comment: Gomes quietly had a productive fantasy season for the Celtics last year. He should get plenty of playing time for the rebuilding T-wolves and shoul put up around 15 points and five a game. He's a young player with a lot of upside who shouldn't go undrafted in any sized league.

3. MICHEAL PIETRUS
Golden State Warriors
Comment: Pietrus averaged career highs in points (11.1), rebounds (4.5) and minutes (26.9) last season while also setting career highs in field goal percentage (49 percent), 3-point percentage (39 percent) and games played (72). Golden State with Don Nelson at the helm has a wide-open offense like a Phoenix Suns Lite and the 25-year-old Pietrus is a perfect fit. Stephen Jackson is the starting small forward, but should his volatile personality explode and cause any amount of missed playing time it could open up a huge opportunity for Pietrus to take advantage of. Golden State just resigned Pietrus in the off season after he was heavily suited by the Miami Heat; there are lots of NBA teams that want him and you should too.

4. JOSH CHILDRESS
Atlanta Hawks
Comment: Childress' sweet afro is almost enough on its own to get him on this list but his overall skills back up his old school style. As his minutes have increased over his first three years in the league so has his overall production. The only thing holding Josh back from being a potential Top 20 small forward is the logjam at forward in Atlanta. Being teamed up with Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams and others currently has Childress stuck as a reserve, but if Atlanta ever realizes that drafting players at the same position year after year is not a smart idea and clears room for Childress then he could make a major impact.

5. MATT HARPRING
Utah Jazz
Comment: This is not an exciting pick in any way. However what Harpring lacks in sizzle and flash he makes up for in hard nosed tough play which a coach like Jerry Sloan in Utah loves. Harpring doesn't get a lot of playing time but he makes the most of it when he gets on the court. Last year in only 25 minutes a game he averaged 11.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and .7 steals a game while shooting 49 percent from the field. The potential of a Andre Kirilenko trade could potentially open up more playing time for Harpring and he has proven in the past with both Philly and Orlando that he can make a sizeable contribution when given the chance. It seems like he never gets drafted but is always a late season addition to a team looking for his solid yet unspectacular stats as the season winds down. Don't wait that long this year.



NOT THESE GUYS

1. PEJA STOJAKOVIC
New Orleans Hornets
Comment: Peja is once again on the comeback trail after playing only 13 games all of last season due to an injured back. Over the last three seasons this one time All Star has averaged 32 games a year — not a good sign for his recuperative powers. Throw in the fact that he is 30 years old and it is doubtful we'll ever see anything close to the sharpshooter who made a name for himself in Sacremento. A healthy Peja could provide solid results, but sadly it looks like this back injury is way too much of a risk to take.

2. MIKE DUNLEAVY
Indiana Pacers
Comment: The very definition of over-rated, Dunleavy was the No. 3 pick of the 2002 draft by Golden State and each and every year since then we have been told he is ready for a breakout year. Well, it's been five years now and the truth of the matter is that Dunleavy is a bust. His number slightly improved after being traded to the Pacers last season but even when receiving over 35 minutes of playing time a game he simply isn't worth wasting a draft pick on.

3. QUENTIN RICHARDSON
New York Knicks
Comment: Q-rich has been a total failure in NY. His numbers across the board have dropped off significantly since leaving Phoenix after the 2004-05 season and there is no reason to believe that any improvement is on the horizon for this upcoming year. Injuries have led to Richardson only averaging 53 games a year the past two season in the big apple, yet he still has the name value and recognition that someone may reach for him early in your draft. Don’t let it be you.

4. JASON KAPONO
Toronto Raptors
Comment: Kapono offers a nice source of 3-pointers but nothing else at all. He is coming off a career year playing in Miami and has a shot at starting Toronto but don't let last year's numbers fool you. He was in the perfect situation taking and nailing a lot of wide-open threes with the Heat playing alongside Shaq and D-Wade. Those open looks simply won't be there across the border. Think along the lines of Damon Jones. He had a career breakout year shooting from the outside while in Miami but has become exposed in Cleveland. The same should happen to Kapono.

5. RUBEN PATTERSON
Los Angeles Clippers
Comment: There's too much going wrong for the other team in LA right now. Elton Brand will miss significant time, Sam Cassell is a huge injury risk and Shaun Livingston is still unproven. So what makes you think Ruben Petterson will step up?




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