We're nearly a third of the way into the NFL season, time enough to look back into the not-too-distant past and ask: what were we thinking? It's also a good time to forecast into the heart of the fantasy season.
What happened and how do you move forward? You must understand how you got to this point to move ahead with any conviction. If your fantasy team is in first place, you'll need to be flexible to stay there. In last place? It's still not too late to make amends.
Here are five burning questions that should help shape your fantasy football decisions from here on out:
If you read Fantasy Sports Update! you saw this coming. We predicted greatness for Tom Brady and Randy Moss during the preseason, even going so far as to rank Moss at the top of our receiver rankings. But Brady's astronomical numbers aren't all about Moss. The Patriots also went out and got a burner in Donte' Stallworth and possession receiver in Wes Welker. Not to mention tight end Benjamin Watson. And no one spreads the ball around better than Brady. While Brady has never thrown more than 28 TDs in a season, he already has 16 to just 2 interceptions. While he won't catch single-season numbers posted by Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, look for Brady to crack 40 TDs.
Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger and Tory Holt were each pegged as Top 5 players at their respective positions. Yet the high-octane St. Louis Rams rank 27th in the NFL in total offense. Compare that with sixth in 2006, ninth in 2005, sixth in 2004, ninth in 2003, 13th in 2002 and first from 1999-2001. So what's wrong? Bulger (ribs) and Jackson (groin) are hurt and Isaac Bruce is in decline. Can the Rams get back on track? Bulger might find his groove, but it's questionable whether Jackson can run with authority and his injury might linger. Pick up Holt on the cheap. Otherwise, stay clear of the Rams.
In hindsight, the hype machine was working overtime since the end of last season. It proclaimed LT the greatest back the NFL has ever seen. A fantasy god. And he was — last season. His 31 total touchdowns are an NFL single-season record. Where do you go from there? Babe Ruth set the single-season home run record four times before topping out at 60 in 1927. Who else does that? No one. That's why it's called Ruthian. Tomlinson has 329 rushing yards and 3 TDS in five games. He's topped 100 yards just once. There's a new coaching staff in San Diego and the AFC West is much improved. So while LT can only get better, he'll fall well short of last season's numbers. Sell high while you still can.
LT isn't the only highly-touted running back who has failed to deliver so far. Injuries have sidelined Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Brian Westbrook and Ahman Green, just to name a few. Suspension stopped Dominic Rhodes and might end Travis Henry's season. And Reggie Bush? Please. The list of disappointments is long. One bright spot — Minnesota Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson — should only get stronger. But one guy mentioned as a Top 5 back who hasn't answered the bell is San Francisco 49ers stud Frank Gore. A preseason hand injury along with a rough start by Alex Smith has translated into an underperforming Gore. Yes, his yards per carry are down. But he's scored three times so far, on a par with the 9 TDs he scored a year ago. Get him off the Week 6 bye and you'll be buying low.
The consensus was Brady Quinn would be Cleveland's starter by now, especially after the Browns traded Opening Day QB Charlie Frye about 10 minutes after the game ended. But Derek Anderson caught fire and ended any chance of Quinn seeing the field anytime soon. The situation in Oakland is stable — for now. So JaMarcus Russell won't be hurried. With Miami's Trent Green suffering a potentially career-ending concussion on Sunday, backup Cleo Lemon will get the start on Sunday in Cleveland. But second-round pick John Beck is the logical choice to earn playing time. The Dolphins are 0-5 and headed nowhere. They'll turn the offense over to Beck soon enough. He may even become a decent No. 2 option under the tutelage of offensive guru Cam Cameron by season's end.
What happened and how do you move forward? You must understand how you got to this point to move ahead with any conviction. If your fantasy team is in first place, you'll need to be flexible to stay there. In last place? It's still not too late to make amends.
Here are five burning questions that should help shape your fantasy football decisions from here on out:
WILL TOM BRADY SLOW DOWN?
If you read Fantasy Sports Update! you saw this coming. We predicted greatness for Tom Brady and Randy Moss during the preseason, even going so far as to rank Moss at the top of our receiver rankings. But Brady's astronomical numbers aren't all about Moss. The Patriots also went out and got a burner in Donte' Stallworth and possession receiver in Wes Welker. Not to mention tight end Benjamin Watson. And no one spreads the ball around better than Brady. While Brady has never thrown more than 28 TDs in a season, he already has 16 to just 2 interceptions. While he won't catch single-season numbers posted by Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, look for Brady to crack 40 TDs.
IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF CANCELLED?
Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger and Tory Holt were each pegged as Top 5 players at their respective positions. Yet the high-octane St. Louis Rams rank 27th in the NFL in total offense. Compare that with sixth in 2006, ninth in 2005, sixth in 2004, ninth in 2003, 13th in 2002 and first from 1999-2001. So what's wrong? Bulger (ribs) and Jackson (groin) are hurt and Isaac Bruce is in decline. Can the Rams get back on track? Bulger might find his groove, but it's questionable whether Jackson can run with authority and his injury might linger. Pick up Holt on the cheap. Otherwise, stay clear of the Rams.
CAN LADAINIAN TOMLINSON REBOUND?
In hindsight, the hype machine was working overtime since the end of last season. It proclaimed LT the greatest back the NFL has ever seen. A fantasy god. And he was — last season. His 31 total touchdowns are an NFL single-season record. Where do you go from there? Babe Ruth set the single-season home run record four times before topping out at 60 in 1927. Who else does that? No one. That's why it's called Ruthian. Tomlinson has 329 rushing yards and 3 TDS in five games. He's topped 100 yards just once. There's a new coaching staff in San Diego and the AFC West is much improved. So while LT can only get better, he'll fall well short of last season's numbers. Sell high while you still can.
WHAT UNDERPERFORMING BACK WILL IMPROVE?
LT isn't the only highly-touted running back who has failed to deliver so far. Injuries have sidelined Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Brian Westbrook and Ahman Green, just to name a few. Suspension stopped Dominic Rhodes and might end Travis Henry's season. And Reggie Bush? Please. The list of disappointments is long. One bright spot — Minnesota Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson — should only get stronger. But one guy mentioned as a Top 5 back who hasn't answered the bell is San Francisco 49ers stud Frank Gore. A preseason hand injury along with a rough start by Alex Smith has translated into an underperforming Gore. Yes, his yards per carry are down. But he's scored three times so far, on a par with the 9 TDs he scored a year ago. Get him off the Week 6 bye and you'll be buying low.
WHAT ROOKIE QB WILL GET A SHOT?
The consensus was Brady Quinn would be Cleveland's starter by now, especially after the Browns traded Opening Day QB Charlie Frye about 10 minutes after the game ended. But Derek Anderson caught fire and ended any chance of Quinn seeing the field anytime soon. The situation in Oakland is stable — for now. So JaMarcus Russell won't be hurried. With Miami's Trent Green suffering a potentially career-ending concussion on Sunday, backup Cleo Lemon will get the start on Sunday in Cleveland. But second-round pick John Beck is the logical choice to earn playing time. The Dolphins are 0-5 and headed nowhere. They'll turn the offense over to Beck soon enough. He may even become a decent No. 2 option under the tutelage of offensive guru Cam Cameron by season's end.