Land a franchise quarterback. That's been the goal of NFL teams at the top of the draft for the better part of a decade. Bring in a young gun to serve as team leader and poster boy for the franchise.

It'll please the fan base, drive merchandise sales and ticket prices, keep the GM and coach employed a while longer and hopefully translate into wins on the field. Nothing inspires hope more on draft day than an accomplished college signal caller holding up his new NFL uniform plastered with the No. 1.

The Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions have the top two picks in the NFL Draft, which kicks off April 28 at Radio City Music Hall in New York. Each is likely to nab a quarterback with their first pick.

That's really no surprise. Teams have taken a quarterback with the top overall pick in seven of the last nine drafts: Alex Smith in 2005, Eli Manning in 2004, Carson Palmer in 2003, David Carr in 2002, Michael Vick in 2001, Tim Couch in 1999 and Peyton Manning in 1998.

The list includes some fantasy studs and duds. Peyton Manning has been rewarding fantasy owners for years, but only fulfilled his draft-day destiny by winning a Super Bowl in this, his ninth season.

Eli Manning? The jury is still out. But he certainly wasn't a fantasy-worthy player as a rookie. Few are. Older brother Peyton Manning was. That history burned fantasy owners hoping for a similar debut from Eli.

With the draft closing in fast, UPDATE! asks a simple question for all you fantasy fans out there: Do you take a chance on draft day with a rookie quarterback? If you answered yes, there's a spot in my league for you. It's called last place.

Rookie running backs and receivers routinely reward adventurous owners. But quarterback is a different animal.

Just because a team anoints some Joe as the next Joe Montana doesn't mean it will work out that way. Rookies rarely star as rookies or become a valuable commodity in fantasy circles.

So when LSU's JaMarcus Russell and Notre Dame's Brady Quinn get called to the stage at Radio City next month, enjoy the moment if you are a fan. But pass them over on fantasy draft day. If you are in a keeper league, then obviously, the rules change.

John Elway and Terry Bradshaw were top picks. But so were Jeff George and Vinny Testaverde. San Francisco tabbed Utah's Alex Smith with the No. 1 pick in 2005 and he struggled mightily, throwing just one touchdown compared with 11 interceptions. No fantasy coach would dare touch Smith.

Then there's former Texas quarterback Vince Young. He was the first quarterback taken a year ago, third overall to the Tennessee Titans. His mix of run and pass skills, along with his vast potential, made him an irresistible pick. And by season's end, he became only the second quarterback ever to win AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. (Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 was the other.)

Young passed for 2,199 yards, 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 13 starts and managed to rush for 552 yards and seven touchdowns. He had six runs longer than 20 yards and picked up 31 first downs. By season's end, two other first-rounders, USC's Matt Leinart and Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler, started games. But none racked up fantasy numbers like Young.

It's unlikely Russell or Quinn will light up NFL scoreboards next fall. Even in a Raiders uniform and with Randy Moss as a target, chances are these rookies will play like newbies and frustrate any fantasy owner crazy enough to start them.

Leinart showed about as much poise in college as any passer ever. The Arizona Cardinals gave him time to learn and dressed up the offense with playmakers. He threw for 2,547 yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 starts. Solid stats. But he couldn't work the same magic that Young managed with the Titans.

Not as a rookie.

NFL teams will always be willing to gamble on a game-changing quarterback in the first round. That's the nature of the business. The fantasy world is very different. Stick with a proven track record and you'll be OK.