POSTED 6-14-07

To call Randy Moss' fantasy appeal sagging would have been an understatement. After establishing himself as a fantasy superstar during the first seven years in the NFL, had he remained on the Oakland Raiders next season he wouldn't even have been drafted in any but the deepest of leagues.

It is amazing what 24 hours can do.

On the morning of the second day of April's NFL Draft, the Raiders and New England Patriots finalized a trade that sent Moss to East for a modest fourth-round draft choice. And just like that, Moss went from the waiver wire to a high-quality fantasy player again.

Moss' troubles during his time in Oakland were numerous. Quarterback problems (the Raiders had none), a terrible offensive line, his indifferent approach to playing in a losing environment and injuries. Now with the Patriots, Moss suddenly finds himself in a completely opposite situation, with a great quarterback on a Super Bowl contender.

He now has a chance to prove he is far from done and reclaim his star status. His blend of height, quickness and receiving skills still make him a huge challenge for defensive backs to cover. And despite murmurs of losing a step, he supposedly ran a sub 4.3-second, 40-yard dash for the Patriots.

While he might still have the skills to be a Top 10 fantasy wide receiver in 2007, nobody is going to give it to him. He will have to earn it.

You should expect to see Moss go off the board by the third round of many yearly fantasy drafts in 2007. Steve Smith, Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson should put up stats well above Moss, and consider even taking Larry Fitzgerald or Marques Colston ahead of him.

Yet Moss still is a formidable talent. And playing for one of the leagues best quarterbacks in Tom Brady, coupled with his desire to prove he still has it, should translate into a rebound season. He'll do far better than last year mdash; 553 yards, three touchdowns mdash; assuming he stays healthy. Just don't look for a career year.

Brady loves to spread the ball around, and Moss is not the only receiver the Pats added this off-season. Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker and Kelley Washington were also added, with tight end Ben Watson and his 49 catches still on the squad.

Brady should call Moss' number enough to get him between seven to nine touchdowns. I would also pencil him in for about 900-yards considering most of his catches will be for 20-plus yards. Those are solid number for any fantasy owner. Remember Moss had 60 catches for 1,005 yards and eight touchdowns his first year in Oakland.

All these added weapons will do wonders for Brady's fantasy value as well. He is a Top 5 fantasy quarterback each year. Next season he will be fighting it out with Drew Brees to be the third fantasy quarterback taken in drafts, after Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer.

As for the rest of the Patriots receivers, Stallworth was the clear No. 1 before the Moss deal, but this trade isn't totally bad news for his fantasy outlook. Stallworth should get less defensive attention with Moss lined up opposite him. Welker might be worth a late-round sleeper selection or a good free-agent pickup at some point. He is a fundamentally-sound pass catcher with great speed who also contributes as a return man. Washington won't be a regular fantasy contributor, and Reche Caldwell, the Patriots leading receiver last season, should be dead to you come draft time.

The bottom line is only Moss can say whether he's back. But fantasy owners should be cautiously optimistic in 2007.
PHOTO BY TOMASSO DEROSA
Redskins safety Sean Taylor smothers Randy Moss here, symbolic of his time in Oakland.



CAREER
Year G GS Rec Yds Avg TD
1998 16 11 69 1313 19.0 17
1999 16 16 80 1413 17.7 11
2000 16 16 77 1437 18.7 15
2001 16 16 82 1233 15.0 10
2002 16 16 106 1347 12.7 7
2003 16 16 111 1632 14.7 17
2004 13 13 49 767 15.7 13
2005 16 15 60 1005 16.8 8
2006 13 13 42 553 13.2 3
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