UPDATE! let's you know who to take early, late and not at all

A successful fantasy football season begins and ends with the running back. Come draft day, owners will scramble to fill their rosters with as many franchise backs as possible. Some may even use their first two or three picks to secure this coveted position. After all, netting a touchdown-producing machine like LaDainian Tomlinson can make or break your season. Fantasy owners should beware of NFL teams that employ a two-back system and be sure to grab an injury-prone player's backup in later rounds. This way, when Shaun Alexander sprains his knee Week 5, you can plug Maurice Morris into the lineup without worry. UPDATE! is there for you. Here are our top picks:



HOT 15

1. LADAINIAN TOMLINSON
San Diego Chargers
Comment: Anybody lucky enough to own Tomlinson last season was treated to one of the great performances in fantasy sports history. The numbers were staggering: 1,815 rushing yards, 508 receiving yards and a combined 31 TDs. Will Tomlinson be able to reproduce those titanic numbers from last season? Probably not, but it doesn't matter. Tomlinson is a lock for 20-plus TDs and another 1,500-yard season. If you own the first pick come draft day don't think twice: Just grab him. Unless your name happens to be Peyton Manning.

2. LARRY JOHNSON
Kansas City Chiefs
Comment: During the 2006 season, Johnson carried the ball an NFL-record 416 times en route to 19 TDs and 2,000-plus all-purpose yards. All those carries should eventually take their toll on Johnson's body, but UPDATE! says not this season. Second in rushing only to Tomlinson, expect Johnson to continue to provide the same sort of consistent value he has shown throughout his career. Pencil in another 16-TD, 1,500-yard season despite playing behind a weak offensive line. Herm Edwards loves running the ball.

3. STEVEN JACKSON
St. Louis Rams
Comment: Perhaps the most versatile running back in the NFL, Jackson totaled 2,332 yards rushing and receiving last season. Entering his fourth season, Jackson has become one of the elite backs in the game. With Marc Bulger finally coming into his own, fantasy owners can expect Jackson to balance out an already potent Rams offense. These two feed off each other and raise the level of their game as they make a push for a playoff berth.

4. SHAUN ALEXANDER
Seattle Seahawks
Comment: Alexander was once the most-coveted running back in fantasy, routinely rushing for 1,300-plus yards and putting up gaudy TD totals. In 2006, though, he broke his foot and missed six starts. Fans of this popular back can rejoice however. His foot has healed and he returns to the field with an improved offensive line. While Alexander's age might prevent him from replicating his MVP-worthy 2005 campaign, he still has enough in him to warrant a Top 5 pick. Expect somewhere around 1,400 yards and 10-plus TDs.

5. FRANK GORE
San Francisco 49ers
Comment: Last season's most popular sleeper pick did not disappoint fantasy owners willing to take a chance. A multifaceted and young back, Gore will be the centerpiece for a rebuilding San Francisco team that hopes to replicate the success of the Joe Montana-Steve Young era. Although much is made of Gore's rushing ability, almost forgotten is his nearly 500 receiving yards in 2006. Gore is a lock as a first-round pick and can be counted on to duplicate last season's impressive breakthrough performance.

6. LAURENCE MARONEY
New England Patriots
Comment: With the addition of Randy Moss and the continuing improvement of Maroney, the Patriots are title contenders who should be taken seriously in 2007. Maroney had a strong rookie season; he collected 939 yards and 7 TDs. With Tom Brady keeping defenses honest, couple with the retirement of Corey Dillon, Maroney will improve and should reward fantasy owners. 1,300 yards and 8 TDs are not out of the question for this second-year standout.

7. JOSEPH ADDAI
Indianapolis Colts
Comment: The Colts allowed Edgerrin James to leave last season, raising speculation as to whether or not they would be able to field a competent running back to complement Peyton Manning. Addai, just a rookie, performed more than admirably and was one of the true surprises of the 2006 season. Skeptics need look no further than the postseason: Addai rushed for 294 yards and caught 10 passes during the Super Bowl. Addai is the real deal — fantasy owners can consider him a first round pick for sure.

8. WILLIE PARKER
Pittsburgh Steelers
Comment: One of the great success stories of the NFL, Parker went from being an undrafted rookie free agent to the Steelers starting running back in 2005. Parker's combination of speed and strength allows him to cut through defenses and, despite his youth, he has played in some big time games. Last season he posted career numbers across the board as he rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 13 TDs. Look for Parker to remain the cornerstone of the Steelers offense in 2007 and to continue to produce for fantasy owners.

9. RUDI JOHNSON
Cincinnati Bengals
Comment: Although Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson steal the headlines, it's Johnson's consistent play that spreads defenses and opens the field in Cincinnati. None of his stats will blow you away, but that doesn't mean he won't produce. The evidence is in the numbers: 1,300-plus yards and 12 TDs for the thirds straight season. If he slips into the second round, he's a steal.

10. TRAVIS HENRY
Denver Broncos
Comment: After regaining fantasy value with the Tennessee Titans last season, Henry joins coach Mike Shanahan's offensive wonder team, the Denver Broncos. A solid veteran, Henry has the chance to improve upon solid 2006 and return to his early potential as an elite running back. Expect a 1,300-yard, 8-TD performance in 2007 and consider Henry an early second-round pick.

11. THOMAS JONES
New York Jets
Comment: After carrying the ball ahead of Cedric Benson for the Bears in 2006, Jones was traded to the Jets during the off-season. The Jets have a young and improving offensive line, so Jones should remain a consistent threat. A third consecutive 1,000-yard season should be a reasonable expectation from this veteran running back. He won't give up too many carries to Leon Washington and should still remain the focus of the Jets offense.

12. BRIAN WESTBROOK
Philadelphia Eagles
Comment: After Donovan McNabb's season ending injury midway through 2006, Westbrook took command of the team and led it to wins in four out of its last five contests. With career highs in rushing (1,217) and TDs (11), Westbrook looks to build on last season's success and continue to improve as a player. The only question mark for fantasy owners is his durability; Westbrook must remain healthy for the whole season to be a consistent contributor.

13. EDGERRIN JAMES
Arizona Cardinals
Comment: After seven solid seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, James was a disappointment with the Cardinals. His 1,376 total yards was the second lowest total of his career and his 3.4 yards-per-carry was an NFL worst. Still, the addition of new coach Ken Wisenhunt and an improved offensive line raises James' value a bit. Expect a slight improvement in his 2007 totals and consider him a deal if he falls to the middle-rounds.

14. WILLIS MCGAHEE
Baltimore Ravens
Comment: After rushing for 1,128 yards and scoring 13 TDs in 2004, McGahee seemed poised to become one of the best running backs in the NFL. Something went wrong however, and McGahee never put it all together. This season McGahee joins a Ravens team where he will be the focal point of the offense. At 25, he is young and there's still time for him to put his natural skills to good use. McGahee is a strong early second-round pick for fantasy owners looking to bolster their corps of running backs.

15. REGGIE BUSH
New Orleans Saints
Comment: Bush has supplanted Deuce McAllister as the Saints premier running back. While two-back systems in the NFL normally limit a player's fantasy value, Bush should only improve on last season's numbers. McAllister will serve as a tutor and guide as Bush transitions into his role of star back, and owners can expect more red zone carries in 2007. Bush finished with over 1,300 yards last season, including 742 receiving, and 8 TDs. Expect more of the same from the former Heisman Trophy winner.

Lamberti is UPDATE! Editor in Chief.

PHOTO By JOHN CORDES / TSN / ZUMA PRESS / ICON SMI
San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson scored a remarkable 31 touchdowns a year ago.



UPDATE! SLEEPERS

1. CEDRIC BENSON
Chicago Bears
Comment: The Bears traded Thomas Jones to the Jets in the off-season, which paved the way for Benson to become the No. 1 running back for the defending NFC champs. Along with the expected increase in carries, Benson should produce a juicy stat-line for fantasy owners to drool over. Benson averaged 63.5 yards a game over the last six — all while sharing the ball. Benson is a solid second-round draft pick with the potential to have a breakout season.

2. JERIOUS NORWOOD
Atlanta Falcons
Comment: As a rookie, Norwood managed to rush for over 600 yards with only 99 carries. Norwood is an explosive athlete and will be a featured back some day. Much of Norwood's development this season hinges on Warrick Dunn. The undersized Dunn will lose out on carries, but is still the top back in Atlanta — for now. Norwood will be looking to challenge this, and should see his role increase as the season rolls on.

3. TATUM BELL
Detriot Lions
Comment: In each of his three seasons with Denver, Bell saw an increase in his rushing yards even as he split carries with other backs. Now with the Lions, Bell will once again be splitting the ball — this time with Kevin Jones. Reports on Jones suggest that he might not be healthy enough to start the season, meaning Bell would be a serious pick-up for prospective fantasy owners.

4. ADRIAN PETERSON
Minnesota Vikings
Comment: Although fantasy owners often grapple with when to gamble on a rookie, Peterson is close to a sure thing. He will start out the season sharing the ball with Chester Taylor, but look for Peterson to supplant him at some point of the season and take the majority of the carries. He's definitely worth a mid-round pick in keeper league. His injury history at Oklahoma is the lone concern.

5. DEANGELO WLLIAMS
Carolina Panthers
Comment: The Panthers have a star in the making with Williams. Although he will be sharing the backfield with DeShaun Foster, it won't be long before Williams takes on a full-time role in the offense. Williams' numbers will go up regardless. But if Foster goes down with an injury — as history suggests will happen — Williams could explode onto the scene in 2007.



NOT THESE GUYS

1. DOMINIC RHODES
Oakland Raiders
Comment: After winning the Super Bowl with the Indianapolis Colts, Rhodes signed with the Raiders in the off-season and figured to be an immediate impact player. Then the NFL banned Rhodes for the first four games of the season for violating the League's substance abuse policy. LaMont Jordan, who Rhodes was supposed to split carries with, should benefit the most from Rhodes' absence while the Raiders scramble to reconfigure their offense.

2. CHESTER TAYLOR
Minnesota Vikings
Comment: Taylor showed flashes brilliance in his first season as the Vikings' featured running back. But he spent the bulk of his career as an effecive No. 2 back and will likely be asked to do it again with the arrival of rookie Peterson. Taylor wore down and managed only one 100-plus yard game over his last nine contests in 2006. Now that the Vikings have added Peterson to the mix, Taylor's value will plummet.

3. FRED TAYLOR
Jacksonville Jaguars
Comment: Playing alongside Maurice Jones-Drew, Taylor saw limited carries last season and still rushed for over 1,000 yards. But with Jones-Drew looking to build on his promising rookie season, expect the veteran Taylor to lose some carries and crucial goal-line touches. And although he started 15 games last season, injuries have been cause for concern in the past. Taylor can still be of use as a viable third running back, but another 1,000-yard season is a stretch.

4. LEON WASHINGTON
New York Jets
Comment: Washington finished up a surprisingly solid rookie campaign by starting four of the team's last five games. It was a good sign for the Washington, until the Jets decided to import Thomas Jones into the mix during the off-season. After signing a hefty contract, expect Jones to get the majority of the carries, leaving the promise of Washington's rookie season unfulfilled.

5. WARRICK DUNN
Atlanta Falcons
Comment: Dunn posted the second-highest rushing total of his 10-year career last season with 1,140 yards. But new coach Bobby Petrino may opt to go with a more physical back this season and, of course, Michael Vick is the No. 1 rushing quarterback in the league. Toss in the continuing development of Jerious Norwood and Dunn's fantasy value becomes limited. Dunn could be worth a late round selection, but don't be surprised if he fails to match last season's numbers.






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