UPDATE! let's you know who to take early, late and not at all

Team defense is one of the hardest statistics to predict season-to-season in the NFL. The slightest off-season departure could open up holes for opposing offenses and cripple a well-planned defensive scheme. For most NFL-teams turnover rates are high, as aging veterans are replaced with younger, more durable hitters. In terms of fantasy play, there's not much difference between grabbing the fifth-ranked defense and the 11th, so players tend to leave this position unfilled until there last few picks. Still, netting a No. 1 defense, like the Ravens or Bears, can have a significant impact in your fantasy league and mean the difference between a first-place or a third-place finish. UPDATE! is there for you. Here are our top picks:



HOT 15

1. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Comment: Last season the Ravens were tops in the league, but with the off-season departure of Adalius Thomas how will they respond? Even with the loss of Thomas (11 sacks, 1 interception, 83 tackles) the Ravens still have the best defense in the league. They have playmakers at every position and no weak links in the chain. Ed Reed will start the season healthy, Terrell Suggs keeps on improving and Ray Lewis is always terrific. Adding a defense like this to your squad gives you an immediate boost week-to-week.

2. CHICAGO BEARS
Comment: Last season the Bears owned one of the most dominating defenses in the league. They tallied 24 interceptions (second best in the NFL) along with 40 sacks. Defensive powerhouses Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are both back for another season, but the Bears lost Tank Johnson to suspension and defensive tackles Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone walked away during the free agency period. So although the Bears might not own the best defense in the league any more, it's still quite good.

3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Comment: The newly revamped Patriots offense is getting all the attention. And after grabbing big names like Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte' Stallworth that's easy to understand. But maybe the biggest grab of all was former Ravens stand out, Adalius Thomas. His presence alone should elevate the Patriots defense to a higher level of play, which set a franchise record for fewest points allowed last season. It's only the pre-season and the Patriots are already heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl.

4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Comment: The Chargers led the league with 61 sacks last season, despite the four-game absence of Shawne Merriman. With Merriman back for a full season the Chargers will not only have one the Leagues' bests offenses, but also a top ranked defense as well. The only cause for concern should be the departure of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who left for Dallas during the off-season. If the Chargers can make a smooth transition with new defensive head Ted Cottrell, then they should be just fine.

5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Comment: The Eagles owned the second best defense last season, despite losing Jevon Kearse to a knee injury in week two. Pro Bowler Michael Lewis left the team, but the strong play of second-year Sean Considine should make up for his absence. Plus, the Eagles traded for Takeo Spike, an especially gifted linebacker who could make some big plays. Look for big boosts to turnovers and a slight increase in sacks from the Eagles in 2007.

6. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Comment: The Dolphins eight interceptions were second worst in the league last season. Although they haven't addressed that need, they have filled out their line with the addition of linebacker Joey Porter. So while the secondary unit isn't great, their front seven should be steady producers. Jason Taylor was defensive player of the year, and Zach Thomas recorded 165 tackles. They might not completely dominate opposing teams, but you could do a lot worse than the Dolphins defense on draft day. And it's almost a guarantee that the Dolphins will do better than last season's eight interceptions.

7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Comment: The 49ers signed corner back Nate Clements to a massive eight-year, $80 million contract this off-season. Obviously they believe he will be a key player on a revamped 49ers defense. They also managed to net rookie Patrick Willis with the 11th overall pick in the draft. Walt Harris is always reliable and will complement Clements nicely at corner back. But if the 49ers want to reach elite status, they need to add more of a pass rush. Still, the 49ers will be a better defensive unit across the board in 2007.

8. DENVER BRONCOS
Comment: The combination of Champ Baily and Dre' Bly is one of the best corner back tandems in football. Baily had 10 picks in 2006, and safety John Lynch is one of the best. The loss of Pro Bowler Al Wilson was a big blow, but not big enough to drop the Broncos out of the top-ten. They only managed 35 sacks last season, but that number should increase with Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder and Marcus Thomas all added through the draft. And if nothing else, Baily and Bly should be good for at least 20 interceptions.

9. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Comment: The Packers defense was hardly talked about last season but it was actually the second-best fantasy defense in the league. Aaron Kampman deserves much of the success — his 15.5 sacks nearly doubled his career high. Former Oakland alum Charles Woodson also had a standout season, nabbing eight interceptions. Expect 40-plus sacks and over 20 interceptions this season. Although the Packers don't have as solid a reputation as the Ravens or Chargers, they can still be a fantasy force.

10. NEW YORK GIANTS
Comment: Injuries plagued the Giants defensive unit last season. Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora both missed significant time, their production halted and they recorded only 32 sacks in 2006. But with a strong mix of new talent (Kawika Mitchell, Mathias Kiwanuka) and more experienced veterans (Antonio Pierce, Sam Madison) the Giants have a formidable lineup. Whether they can all remain healthy and become productive fantasy players is another story.

11. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Comment: Minnesota's run defense was outstanding last season. In fact, they were the only team in the NFL to allow less than 1,000 yards rushing. The core of the defensive unit remains intact, but there is still cause to worry. Despite forcing 21 interceptions last season, Minnesota ranked second-to-last in passing yards allowed. Defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin split as well, which could cause some headaches as they try to shift into a new defensive set. But after two seasons ranked among the best defensives in the league, UPDATE! is willing to bet the Vikings will make a smooth transition under new coordinator Leslie Frazier.

12. ST. LOUIS RAMS
Comment: The Rams allowed 145 rushing yards per game last season, runner-up for worst in the league. Opponents managed over 100 rushing yards in 10 out of the 16 games played in 2006, prompting management to focus on promoting run defense during the off-season. Defensive end James Hall and linebacker Chris Draft were acquired via free agency and defensive end Adam Carriker was drafted with high expectations. Expect the Rams to raise their number of total sacks and force more turnovers this season, making them a viable fantasy option.

13. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Comment: The Panthers defense rushed for 41 sacks last season, but only managed to force 22 turnovers. However, this season the team should show considerable improvement. Julius Peppers is a defensive monster year after year and Dan Morgan returns to the fold after only playing one game in 2006. Plus, Miami Hurricanes standout Jon Beason joins the mix. Expect a return more in line with the Panthers 2005 season numbers, which saw them pressure offensives for 38 turnovers.

14. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Comment: The Jaguars had an impressive defensive unit last season, but that did not translate into fantasy success. So although they held opponents to just 91 rushing yards a game and were fourth in the league in points allowed, a lack of aggression led to only 35 sacks and just eight fumbles. Defensive leader Mike Peterson should make a full comeback from last season's injury, and the Jaguars youth movement continued with the addition of Reggie Nelson and Justin Durant. If defensive end Reggie Hayward can return to form after missing 15 games last season, then the Jaguars might have a surprisingly solid defensive this season.

15. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Comment: Although the Cardinals were nothing short of atrocious last season, their defensive numbers were actually quite good. 38 sacks, 16 interceptions, 21 fumbles and three defensive touchdowns made the Cardinals one of the better fantasy defenses last season, even with Bertrand Berry missing significant time due to injury. Second-round draft pick Alan Branch joins the fold, as does new coach Ken Wisenhunt and his long-time defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast. Wisenhunt will demand production from the defensive line, and the presence of Pendergast should provide continuity for a team looking to solidify its reputation.

Lamberti is UPDATE! Editor in Chief.

PHOTO By Robert E. Klein / Icon SMI
With perennial All-Pro linebacker Zach Thomas (54) in the middle, the Miami Dolphins are a solid defensive pick.



FREE AGENT IMPACT

1. ADALIUS THOMAS
New England Patriots
Comment: Thomas has earned a reputation as a hard-nosed and aggressive player, capable of filling multiple positions on the defensive line. Last season with the Ravens, he recorded 83 tackles and 11 sacks. Thomas will bring experience and relative youth to a Patriots defensive line that has been just average in the past. Expect this versatile big man to have a huge impact on the Patriots as they make a push for their fourth title in seven years.

2. NATE CLEMENTS
San Francisco 49ers
Comment: Clements signed an $80 million, eight-year contract during the off-season, making him the highest paid defensive back in NFL history. He earned it though, as he finished last season among the Leagues' elite with 70 tackles, three interceptions and one touchdown. Clement should make the transition to the 49ers upgraded defensive system without trouble, and the team looks strong enough to earn its first winning season in nearly four years.

3. DRE' BLY
Denver Broncos
Comment: Bly will join Champ Baily this season to form one of the most imposing cornerback tandems in all of football. His 33 interceptions are the most in the league since 1999, and he is coming off his third season of 50-plus tackles. Plus, new defensive coordinator Jim Bates is one of the most respected defensive minds in the game. Expect a big season from Bly, who will be covering the No. 2 wide receiver the majority of the time.

4. KEN HAMLIN
Dallas Cowboys
Comment: The Cowboys got a big boost of talent when they signed Hamlin this off-season. He will combine with Roy Williams and Terrence Newman to form a powerful front seven. 96 tackles, two sacks and three interceptions last season placed Hamlin among the league leaders, and his presence will help shut down the run. And at only 26, there's still room for improvement.

5. TAKEO SPIKES
Philadelphia Eagles
Comment: Spike was slow recovering from an Achilles tear suffered during the 2005 season, limiting him in 2006. In 12 games last season he posted 70 tackles and appears to be slowing down. But Spikes is still a proven playmaker. His presence gives the Eagles line an immediate upgrade. Now fully recovered from injury, look for Spikes to post big numbers in Philly.



ROOKIE SLEEPERS

1. GAINES ADAMS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Comment: The Buccaneers selected Adams with the fourth overall pick in this years draft, expecting him to be a fixture of their defensive line for the next several years. He will be an immediate starter and should post high totals for a rookie. More importantly, Adams provides some much needed youth and athleticism to an aging defensive unit.

2. PATRICK WILLIS
San Francisco 49ers
Comment: Taken as the 49ers first-round pick in this year's draft, Willis was considered one of the best the best college linebackers last year and figures to be an important part of the teams' defensive overhaul. Willis is a tackling machine that should start right away. He has good speed and is strong enough to have an instant impact on a rapidly improving team. His senior year with the Rebels, he recorded 137 tackles — an encouraging sign for 49ers fans.

3. JAMAAL ANDERSON
Atlanta Falcons
Comment: A versatile defensive end that could play both the weak and strong side with equal ease, Jamaal Anderson figures to be an immediate starter for the Falcons. He has good speed and, at 6-6, is the prototypical size for his position. This future Pro Bowl player has a lot of potential and fills an immediate need for the Falcons. If Anderson could bulk up and avoid injuries, he could be around this league for a long time.

4. ADAM CARRIKER
St. Louis Rams
Comment: The Rams gave up 145 rushing yards per game last season — a number they hope to improve on in 2007. Their first-round pick, Adam Carriker, gives them a tall, quick big man and an explosive defensive end. Carriker should deliver as a rookie, especially as the season goes on and he gains more NFL experience. Expect him to be an important part in halting opponents run game.

5. JON BEASON
Carolina Panthers
Comment: A former Miami Hurricanes standout, Beason joins a Panther squad where he will be expected to provide versatility and energy. Beason provides an insurance policy for the oft-injured Dan Morgan, and could see some immediate action. This speedy linebacker should contribute regularly and could find himself starting before long. Expect him to start the season behind Na'il Diggs.






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