UPDATE! let's you know who to take early, late and not at all

The market for wide receivers is a lot like betting on a small cap tech stock. It's a high risk, high reward pick. All you can do is hope for the best — and that you don't get burn marks when all hell breaks loose. Is there a more volatile bunch in the game today than the likes of Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson and Steve Smith? Moss and Owens have serious character issues and enough TNT in their mouths to blow up a team's chemistry. Johnson is one stunt away from a league suspension. The sometimes brilliant Smith has trouble staying healthy. And yet these are the top four players at the position. You need these guys to be an elite team. Take the right one and you'll be playoff bound. Bet wrong and, oh well. There's always next season. UPDATE! is there for you. Here are our top picks:



HOT 15

1. RANDY MOSS
New England Patriots
Comment: After spending last season languishing in Oakland, look for Moss to jump-start his career with the New England Patriots in 2007. Tom Brady has never played with a deep threat as talented as Moss. Depth at the position will prevent double coverage from stifling Moss. This should translate into big numbers and fantasy owners can once again expect 1,000-plus yards and multiple TDs from the freakishly talented Moss. Despite underperforming his last three seasons, Moss remains the best receiver in league. And paired with Brady, fantasy owners can expect to be rewarded each week.

2. STEVE SMITH
Carolina Panthers
Comment: Without a doubt, Smith is the hardest working player in the NFL. Slight in size, he makes up for it in heart. He has proven that he has a tendency to get hurt in even years but dominates in odd years. So look for an awesome year in 2007. Smith caught 83 passes last year en route to over 1,100 yards. On a Panthers team that has added notable rookie Dwayne Jarret, look for Smith to continue his domination at the receiver position.

3. CHAD JOHNSON
Cincinatti Bengals
Comment: One of the few Bengals that has stayed out trouble over the past couple of years, Johnson is still far from avoiding controversy. His antics sometimes prevent him from being truly appreciated as one of the top five wide outs in the league. The Bengals' high-tempo offense will lead to big numbers for Johnson and if the defense can improve, the team could put up some record numbers. Additionally, playing alongside fellow wideout T.J. Houshmenzadeh will help eliminate double coverage and provide Johnson with more opportunities for easy catches.

4. TERRELL OWENS
Dallas Cowboys
Comment: OK, so Owens is a little — check that — a lot crazy. But he is still an elite NFL receiver. He will put up at least 80 catches, 1,300 yards and 12 TDs. The problem with T.O. is that most people hate having this guy because they actually have to cheer for him. If you get the chance, bite the bullet and do it. With the more lenient Wade Philips helming the cowboys, expect more freedom for Owens out in the field. And love him or hate him, Owens puts up solid numbers year after year. In his last seven season, Owens has caught for over 1,000 yards six times and 10-plus TDs five times.

5. TORRY HOLT
St. Louis Rams
Comment: Holt gets overlooked because he seems to put up the same numbers — kind of like a cross-town guy named Albert Pujols. But that consistency is appreciated in fantasy circles. Another thing Holt has going for him, the Rams have one of the best young backs in the game and the easiest schedule in the league. Expect no less than 90 receptions, 1,200 yards and 10-plus TDs. Through nine NFL seasons, Holt remains a workhorse — he's played in all but two games in his pro-career.

6. REGGIE WAYNE
Indianapolis Colts
Comment: Wayne is the not only one of the best wideouts in the AFC but also one of the best in the game. He may not be Peyton Manning's favorite target on the field but with Marvin Harrison aging he will be eventually. There is a reason that they re-signed him and let Edgerrin James go; he is an absolute stud wideout! He caught for over 1,300 yards last season and is poised to repeat his fantasy worthy performance again in 2007.

7. ROY WILLIAMS
Detroit Lions
Comment: No one will mistake Jon Kitna for Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning, but he is a solid quarterback that realizes what he needs to do to succeed in Detroit — get the ball to Williams. In terms of pure talent, Williams is a no-doubt Top 10 guy with the tools to dominate. This could be the monster season everyone's been waiting for. Last season Williams caught 82 passes and 7 TDs to go along with 1,300 yards. Fantasy owners can expect similar numbers from last season with a probably increase in TDs.

8. MARVIN HARRISON
Indianapolis Colts
Comment: Just when you expect Harrison to finally slow down, he keeps on putting up big numbers. A concern with him and teammate Reggie Wayne should be the Colts' brutal schedule, which is why Harrison falls several places on this years list. The Super Bowl champions schedule is always tough but the Colts' includes trips to Carolina, San Diego, Baltimore and Jacksonville and home games against the likes of Denver, New England and the Jags. Harrison's 12 TDs and 1,366 yards will dip this season, but not enough to warrant keeping him off your fantasy team.

9. DONALD DRIVER
Green Bay Packers
Comment: Brett Favre is not getting any younger but he still wants to win. The secret to success? Get the ball to Driver as much as possible. If Greg Jennings can perform suitably on the other side of the field, Driver will avoid double coverage and may see an increase from last years numbers — 1,295 yards and 8 TDs.

10. ANQUAN BOLDIN
Arizona Cardinals
Comment: Boldin has transformed himself into the most physical receiver in the league. He blows through cornerbacks like a fullback. And with Matt Leinart's impending rise to stardom, Boldin will be a fantasy workhorse for years to come. As an added bonus, the Cardinals' easy schedule should allow for Boldin to have a 1250-yard, 7 TD season. Fantasy owners can consider Boldin a No. 1 wideout week after week.

11. LARRY FITZGERALD
Arizona Cardinals
Comment: Coming off his injury-plagued 2006 season, Fitzgerald's stock has probably gone down a bit. The Cardinals easy schedule, along with the presence of Anquan Boldin, will give Fitzgerald the opportunity to rebound nicely. UPDATE! predicts 1,100 yards and 7 TDs from this talented, young receiver. And the Cardinals might have the best wideout duo in all of football.

12. T.J. HOUSHMANZADEH
Cincinnati Bengals
Comment: He missed two games and still had more catches and scores (9) than teammate Chad Johnson. He's been overlooked and overshadowed by Ocho Cinco. But savvy owners know Housh quietly performs every year. Think about drafting Houshmanzadeh in the middle rounds of your draft; he will reward owners with consistent numbers week-to-week. With Palmer throwing the ball, Houshmanzadeh will get the opportunity to produce all season long.

13. JAVON WALKER
Denver Broncos
Comment: After sitting out the majority of the 2005 season with a knee injury, Walker returned in 2006 with great success. His 1,084 yards and 8 TDs from last season shouldn't be to hard to improve, and at 28, Walker is still young enough to have an impact on a continually improving Broncos team. Look for the development of quarterback Jay Cutler to play an important role in defining Walker's season.

14. PLAXICO BURRESS
New York Giants
Comment: Burress failed to record a 1,000 receiving yards for the third time in four seasons. He redeemed his fantasy value, however, by catching 10 touchdown passes in 15 games. With Tiki Barber's departure, Eli Manning has taken over the team and the Giants will place a greater emphasis on their passing game. Look for Burress to be the primary weapon. Although he won't post any eye-popping numbers, Burress is a solid No. 2 wideout for fantasy owners this season.

15. ANDRE JOHNSON
Houston Texans
Comment: There are reasons to debate this Top 15 choice, from and inexperienced quaterback to an aged running back. But Johnson has the tools to dominate. His 103 receptions led the NFL last season and he recorded a career best 1,147 yards. Plus, Ahman Green will open up the offense and pick up blocks much better than Ron Dayne, which should translate into an increase in Johnson's numbers. Take a flyer on this guy and you might be surprisingly rewarded.

PHOTO By J.C. RIDLEY / caneshooter.com
Few defenses will be able to stop Reggie Wayne or the potent Indianapolis Colts' air attack in 2007.



UPDATE! SLEEPERS

1. JERRICHO COTCHERY
New York Jets
Comment: Cotchery put together a breakout season while still managing to fly under the radar. Look for Cotchery to repeat last season's success and expect an increase in both TDs (6) and total yards (961). With Thomas Jones in the backfield, the Jets will have a stronger running game this year. That should open up the field for Cotchery and provide him with more easy opportunities to catch.

2. D.J. HACKETT
Seattle Seahawks
Comment: With Darrell Jackson gone, someone has to pick up the slack and Hackett is a prime candidate. Deion Branch was pretty disappointing in his first season in Seattle and is a bit overrated. But that is a good thing for Hackett: He won't be the focus of opposing team's defense. Another fantasy factor: The Seahawks have an easy schedule. He faces the Rams, Cardinals and '49ers each twice. Look for Hackett, who had 610 yards and 4 TDs in 2006, to improve.

3. MARK CLAYTON
Baltimore Ravens
Comment: Clayton showed some real flashes of greatness last year with a solid season on one of the NFL's most dominant teams. Now entering his third season, Clayton is poised to take over the Ravens offense and become their top receiver. Though a bit overrated, running back Willis McGahee gives the Ravens a more dynamic running game than Jamal Lewis once did. His success carrying the ball will make things easier for Clayton throughout the season.

4. DEVERY HENDERSON
New Orleans Saints
Comment: With Joe Horn gone, Henderson has the chance to have a huge season. He is a deep threat with the ability to also be a possession receiver. And after his monster rookie year, defenses will key in on Marcus Colston and allow Henderson to feast on single coverage. In 15 games last season, including seven starts, Henderson had 745 yards and 5 TDs. If nothing else, he will repeat last year's success.

5. BERNARD BERRIAN
Chicago Bears
Comment: The Bears love to go deep, mainly because that is the only throw that Rex Grossman can make, and Berrian is without a doubt the Bears' main threat. Much of the Bears' offensive success hinges on Grossman's continued maturation and growth. A positive season for him should translate into big numbers for Berrian, who had 775 yards and 6 TDs a year ago.



NOT THESE GUYS

1. WES WELKER
New England Patriots
Comment: Although talented and quick, Welker joins a New England team where he will undoubtedly be the third option. Tom Brady's newly revamped Patriots offense now features wide receiver Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth as well as the up-and-coming running back Laurence Maroney. Welker had over 600 yards last season playing for the Miami Dolphins. Joining such a potent offensive lineup, however, it's hard to imagine Welker duplicating last season's magic.

2. MIKE FURREY
Detroit Lions
Comment: Furrey was one of the true fantasy surprises last season. In 16 games for the Lions, Furrey caught for over 1,000 yards and six TDs making him a waiver wire catch for many owners. Now entering his fifth season, it seems like a bit of a stretch to ask for Furrey to post similar numbers. Rookie standout Calvin Johnson will take receptions away from Furrey. And besides, prior to his breakout campaign, Furrey had just 197 yards in 37 appearances for the St. Louis Rams.

3. JERRY PORTER
Oakland Raiders
Comment: Porter missed 12 games for the Raiders last season sidelined by injuries and suspensions. Although he enters the season healthy — and with a new coach and quarterback — Porter will be hard pressed to repeat his two fantasy worthy performances from 2004 and 2005. He'll likely be relegated to second option behind Ronald Curry. At 29, Porter is still in his prime. The Oakland Raiders are too poor a team to place much fantasy stock in its players — for now.

4. ISAAC BRUCE
St. Louis Rams
Comment: Entering his 15th NFL season, Bruce has long been considered an elite fantasy performer. But Bruce will be 35 at the start of the 2007 season, and has long since been replaced by Torry Holt. Although Bruce still has some spring in his step, turf toe limited him 2005 and hamstring issues slowed him down in the late 1990s. Despite his 1,000-plus yards last season, expect his age to show.

5. SANTANA MOSS
Washington Redskins
Comment: A myriad of injuries has limited Moss over the last several years. Nagging hamstring problems have slowed him down and he enters this season with a groin and hip flexor injury. Last season he managed 790 yards and 6 TDs in 14 games, but that's a far cry from the 1,483 yards and 9 TDs Moss posted in 2005. While Moss can be effective, don't expect him to dominate.






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