Everyone who has the first pick in their upcoming fantasy football draft is already foaming at the mouth with the prospect of landing San Diego's stud running back. We're talking LaDainian Tomlinson.

It's safe to say that LT will be taken first in about 95 percent of all drafts, and that's a conservative estimate. First of all, a running back is almost always chosen with the top pick, but then when you look at Tomlinson's 2006 numbers (1,815 rushing yards, 508 receiving yards, and 31 total touchdowns), you have to assume he's going to at least post numbers close to that again in 2007.

That's one side to the story. Then there is this: Remember that LT was on pace for a phenomenal season in 2005, and a rib injury slowed him down at fantasy playoff time. He still had 1,832 all-purpose yards and 20 TDs, but none of that when it mattered most. If you had LT, as I did, and watched Shaun Alexander whip your butt in the championship, you know what I mean.

So while LT had a stunning 2006, it was in part because he managed to stay injury-free, and was also aided by the coming of age of his quarterback, Phillip Rivers. This season may will be transitional year for the Chargers, with a new head coach in Norv Turner and offensive coordinator in Clarence Shelmon.

So let's say you don't want to gamble that LT lightning won't strike two years in a row. If you ever thought about taking a quarterback with the first overall pick, the logical choice would be Indianapolis' Peyton Manning. In 2004, Manning had a spectacular season he's likely to never repeat, when he threw for 4,557 yards and a record-setting 49 touchdown passes to only 10 interceptions. That's fantasy gold, not just for the quarterback position, but for any position.

And while Manning came slightly back down to earth the past two seasons (averaging 4,072 yards and 29.5 TDs), he's been a model of consistency as a whole. Consider that Manning has not missed a game in his first nine seasons in the NFL, and he's never thrown for less than 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns. Also consider that Manning has not had more than 10 interceptions in a season for the last four years. That's not just consistent, that's bordering on legendary.

So what to do? I'm going to throw out another important number here: Age. Manning is 31, and his top receiver, Marvin Harrison, is 34.

Tomlinson is only 28 and it's possible he hasn't peaked yet.

So put that in the back of your mind as you consider that taking a running back with the top pick is your smartest move. Then taking LT first is a no-brainer. In addition, if you do take LT with the top pick, you can probably land a stud quarterback such as Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Carson Palmer in the second or third round.

Conversely, if you selected Manning with the top pick, and assuming your next pick would then be 20th or 24th in most leagues, you'd likely wind up with someone the caliber of Brian Westbrook as your top running back.

Debate all you want, and remember that if you have the top pick in your fantasy draft, you'll be in good shape no matter what. But I just wouldn't want to be the guy that passes on LT and watches him put up huge numbers again. Worse yet, I wouldn't want to pass up on LT, and then watch him beat up on me in the fantasy playoffs.



Mike Farley is author of the blog I Miss Football Season